Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks will reverse course as growth stalls Soaring interest rates and falling real incomes will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. In fact, we now expect New Zealand to enter a... 12th October 2022 · 26 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity holding up this year but will weaken in 2023 The latest data show that consumer spending is defying downbeat sentiment and rising interest rates by continuing to strengthen. Indeed, we have been arguing for some time that strong financial... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn raises recession risks With inflation rising even further than we had anticipated, both the RBNZ and the RBA will slam harder on the brakes than most anticipate. We expect policy rates to peak around 3.5% in both countries... 7th July 2022 · 25 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ tightening cycle shows no signs of slowing Rising interest rates have started to weigh on house prices and sentiment. But inflation is probably still rising and the labour market is still tightening. On that basis we expect the RBNZ to hike... 7th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn to weigh on activity The housing downturn is now in full swing. While that hasn’t prevented a solid rise in consumption in Q2, we think falling wealth will be a drag on consumer spending next year. What’s more, our... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) The monthly decline in house prices in June was the largest since 2019 but is unlikely to be the sharpest decline in the current downturn. We think house prices will eventually fall by 15% from their... 1st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (May 2022) The strong rise in retail sales in May highlights the strength in the Australian economy and is consistent with our view that the RBA will continue to hike rates aggressively in the months ahead. 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More 50bp hikes coming We agree with RBA governor Phillip Lowe that market pricing for the Cash rate looks too aggressive. But we also think the consensus is still too dovish. After all, Governor Lowe is starting to grow... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures keep building The big minimum wage hike announced by the fair work commission this week will lead to higher wage growth over the coming year. Given the tightness in the labour market and rising cost pressures... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May 2022) The strong rise in employment in May will keep pressure on the RBA to continue its aggressive hiking cycle in the months ahead. World with Higher Rates - Drop-In (21 st June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Does... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2022) The fall in GDP at the start of the year was due to the disruption to activity from the Omicron outbreak. Growth will have rebounded strongly in the current quarter, but we suspect falling house... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Minimum wage rise will keep RBA hiking aggressively The 5.2% increase in the minimum wage announced by the Fair Work Commission will directly lift the Wage Price Index by around 0.7%-pt. But the increase will also contribute to upward pressure on wage... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Steeper interest rate hikes and larger house price falls Hawkish shifts by the RBA and the RBNZ in recent weeks have prompted us to forecast an even more aggressive hiking cycle by both central banks in the months ahead. Both central banks hiked rates by... 9th June 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) The monthly decline in house prices in May is the start of a significant housing downturn as the RBA’s hiking cycle continues. There’s a risk that this prompts the RBA to end its hiking cycle early... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand house prices to fall by 20% House prices in New Zealand are tumbling and all signs point to a further deterioration in the months ahead. On that basis, we are revising up our forecast for the peak to trough decline in prices... 30th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q1 2022) We estimate that private investment fell by 1.3% q/q in Q1, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest investment will strengthen before long. 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
