RBNZ Watch RBNZ hiking cycle has further to run The New Zealand economy remained hot at the end of last year. And while the Omicron outbreak may disrupt activity in Q1, we expect the impact to be short-lived. We therefore forecast the RBNZ to... 16th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to hike rates to 1.75% Continued strength in underlying inflation and activity will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to start hiking rates in June. And we now expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 1.75% by August... 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA hiking cycle to start as RBNZ’s ends The RBA is coming around to the view that rates will need to be hiked this year. And our forecast that inflation will continue to surprise the Bank in the months ahead is why we think it will start... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Dec. 2021) The fall in the trade balance in December is consistent with trade having been a sizable drag on growth at the end of last year. Australia Drop-in: Will soaring inflation prompt the RBA to follow the... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Q4 2021) The further decline in the unemployment rate to a record low of 3.2% will keep the RBNZ on its hiking cycle in the months ahead. But we suspect the unemployment rate will rise again before long. 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflationary surge prompting monetary tightening New Zealand’s inflation surged to a 30-year high of 5.9% in Q4. And while Australia’s 3.5% was much lower, it is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Trimmed mean inflation is about one percentage... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 2021) The persistent rise in inflation to the highest levels in 30 years will be worrying the RBNZ. That’s why we expect the Bank to hike aggressively in the first half of this year. 26th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2021) The strong rise in underlying inflation at the end of last year means the RBA is all but certain to end its asset purchase scheme at its meeting next week. And with underlying inflation now above the... 25th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hike rates this year The fall in the Australian unemployment rate to 4.2% in December means the labour market is now the tightest it has been since 2008. That all but confirms our forecast that the RBA will end its asset... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBNZ will ease even as RBA starts to tighten Australia’s Omicron outbreak will hold back the recovery this quarter, but there are plenty of reasons why Australia will outperform New Zealand over the next couple of years. As the labour market has... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2021) The further decline in the Australian unemployment rate in December supports our forecast that the RBA will end its asset purchases in February. 20th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Housing downturn will lead to RBNZ rate cuts in 2023 While the strength in New Zealand’s economy will cause the RBNZ to hike rates further this year, we think the RBNZ will end its hiking cycle earlier than the financial markets anticipate. What’s more... 12th January 2022 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales/External Trade (Nov. 2021) November’s data support our view that GDP will surpass its pre-delta level in Q4. But while the strength in retail sales is set to fade in the months ahead as Omicron weighs on consumption, the likely... 11th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly We still expect the RBA to end QE in February Surging cases of the Omicron variant are putting Australia’s healthcare system under pressure and will weigh on consumption in Q1. But we think fresh lockdowns will be avoided. What’s more, growing... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) The easing in house price growth in December will continue in 2022. And we expect further tightening in lending standards and rises in interest rates to cause house prices to fall in 2023. 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Omicron won’t hold back consumption for long The Omicron has lifted new virus cases to a record high, though hospitalisations remain low. We estimate that there are around 2000 hospital beds available for Covid-19 patients in New South Wales... 23rd December 2021 · 11 mins read
