Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solid Q1 GDP more than makes up for Q2 weakness The strong rise in GDP in Q1 has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecasts for this year. And while the Victoria lockdown will weigh on consumption growth in Q2, sentiment is holding up so we expect... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade & Retail Sales (Apr.) The trade surplus widened again in April but that was largely driven by higher commodity prices. Export volumes will need to recover further in the months ahead to prevent trade from being a drag on... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) House prices are surging but forward indicators point to growth slowing in the months ahead. Indeed, we suspect prices may decline a little in 2021. 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted in October that the Government would not pursue budget repair until the unemployment rated was comfortably below 6%. However, the unemployment rate fell much... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s recovery set back, RBNZ signals rate hikes The outbreak of the Indian virus variant in Victoria this week highlights the risks from the slow vaccine roll-out. Despite strong investment figures for Q1, we are sticking to our forecast that the... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q1) We estimate that private investment rose by 4.1% q/q in Q1 and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest the strong rebound in investment is set to continue in the months ahead. 27th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth set to accelerate in Australia April’s labour market figures confirmed that the withdrawal of the JobKeeper wage subsidy wasn’t as big a shock as many had feared. The continued tightening of the labour market should eventually... 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch Housing mandate won’t change the Bank’s outlook While the Bank will acknowledge the new house price requirements in its remit it is unlikely to respond to them with immediate policy changes. On that basis we expect the RBNZ to keep policy settings... 19th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) The strength in wage growth in Q1 was partly due to one-off factors which will fade in the year ahead, but we still think the tightening in the labour market will see wage growth rise in earnest... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Budget to extend tax relief While the government is likely to announce further tax relief at next week’s Budget, we suspect it will use nearly half of the recent improvement in the budget balance to reduce borrowing. 5th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.7% in New Zealand is consistent with our view that a continued tightening in the labour market will prompt the RBNZ to hike rates next year. 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Underlying inflation to remain subdued for now Inflation was subdued in Q1 and while we expect the plunge in prices in Q2 2020 to cause a surge in inflation this quarter, headline inflation should be just 2% by year-end. More importantly, we... 30th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q1) We think underlying inflation will remain close to the RBNZ’s target for the foreseeable future which supports our view that the RBNZ will hike rates next year. 21st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Financial stability risks to come back onto the radar The RBA is sticking to its upbeat assessment of Australian households’ financial resilience. But if credit growth picks up and lending standards slip, we think APRA may intervene before long. We now... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Tighter monetary policy on the horizon The speed of the vaccination rollout has been disappointing and brief, localised lockdowns have set back the recovery in both countries. But vaccine supply should improve over the coming months which... 15th April 2021 · 16 mins read
