Some observers have argued that the ongoing calm in global markets may prompt the RBA to leave rates unchanged at its 8th July meeting, given its preference to move in a cautious manner. However, we're not convinced. After all, the Bank is unlikely to discount the potential for renewed market turbulence around the upcoming deadline for the US's tariff pause. More importantly, the recent flow of data continues to suggest that risks to the domestic economic outlook are skewed to the downside. In this context, we believe the case for frontloading policy easing remains the stronger one.
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