While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes to its relatively insulated lending market in this cycle. Conversely, while we expect a bigger peak-to-trough fall in the US, markdowns there have been much slower. It looks as though US appraisers have come under pressure from lenders who fear a wave of forced sales could lead to an even greater loss of confidence and turn a bad situation into something much worse.
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