Turkey’s quick turnaround, Russia’s latest intervention

The sharp improvement in Turkey’s virus situation has brightened the near-term outlook and presents a risk to our view that the central bank will start an aggressive easing cycle in the coming months. Meanwhile, the temporary export duty imposed on certain metal products in Russia this week is yet another sign that the government is becoming more concerned about the consequences of high and rising inflation.
Nicholas Farr Assistant Economist
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Manufacturing PMIs (June)

The PMIs for June suggest that manufacturing sectors strengthened in Turkey, Czechia and Poland but weakened in Russia. Meanwhile, in Czechia and Poland, supply chain disruptions intensified, and there was further evidence of price pressures building across the region.

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Economic Sentiment Indicators (June)

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Poland: Hawks to remain in the minority … for now

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