Energy price rally maybe running out of steam

Commodity prices generally rose this week, helped by the US senate approving a deal to increase the federal debt ceiling. After a rollercoaster of a week, European natural gas prices ended the week lower following comments from President Putin that Russia was prepared to stabilise global energy prices by boosting supply. Nevertheless, we continue to expect most energy prices to remain high until at least Q2 2022. It was a quiet week for metals markets, although most prices rose on Friday as Chinese traders returned from the national ‘Golden Week’ holiday. The main data release for commodity markets next week will be the China trade data for September (Wednesday). We suspect that China’s imports of industrial metals will have edged lower in tandem with weaker construction activity, but imports of coal are likely to have risen in response to ongoing power shortages.
Watch out for our Group Chief Economist, Neil Shearing, who will be presenting the Economic keynote at the LME Metals Seminar on Monday 11th October. If you would like copies of the slides, please email caroline.bain@capitaleconomics.com
Caroline Bain Chief Commodities Economist
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