Lagging behind

Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists and falls in commodity prices means that economic recoveries will lag behind those in other parts of the world. GDP across most of the region is likely to stay well below its pre-crisis path over 2021-23.
William Jackson Chief Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Economics Update

CBN remains fixated on supporting the recovery

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept its benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% today as it shrugged off the unexpected rise in inflation in December and maintained its focus on supporting the recovery. We think that the current accommodative policy stance is unlikely to change in the coming months, but rate hikes will probably come onto the agenda in the second half of 2022.

25 January 2022

Africa Economics Weekly

Balance on South African MPC tipping towards rate hike

A raft of recent economic developments have shaken up our near-term views on monetary policy in South Africa, and we now expect a 25bp rate hike at next week’s MPC meeting. However, our forecasts for the next 12-18 months are still more dovish than most investors'.

21 January 2022

Africa Data Response

South Africa Activity Data (Nov.)

November’s hard activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy performed strongly in the middle of Q4 and the early evidence is that the latest Omicron-driven virus wave inflicted only minimal economic damage last month. But even so, the recovery this year will remain stuck in the slow lane.

19 January 2022

More from William Jackson

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil: further hikes in store as inflation concerns build

The hawkish statement accompanying yesterday’s 100bp rate hike by the Brazilian central bank (to 5.25%) means that the Selic rate will increase further than we had anticipated. We now expect it to be raised to 7.50% by year-end (previously 6.50%).

5 August 2021

Latin America Data Response

Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.)

The stagnation in Brazilian industrial production in June suggests that industry made a negative contribution to q/q GDP growth over Q2 as a whole. But with virus cases having fallen sharply, it looks like the prospects for industry – and the economy more generally – are brightening.

3 August 2021

Latin America Data Response

Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.)

The re-opening of Mexico’s economy caused GDP growth to accelerate to 1.5% q/q in Q2, and we suspect that this preliminary figure will be revised up. But with new virus cases rising sharply, the economy is likely to slow in Q3.

30 July 2021
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