The first year in office for South Africa’s Government of National Unity has seen an improvement in investor appetite towards the country as well as an easing of supply-side constraints. But we think intra-party disputes will persist, hurting fiscal and structural reform ambitions. Elsewhere, protests broke out again in Kenya this week which, apart from underlining the government’s fragility, add to our worries that officials lack the political capital to stabilise the country’s shaky public finances. Finally, Angola said it is no longer wants an IMF loan but, if oil prices continue to drop back as we expect, discussions with the Fund will probably be needed at some point down the line.
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