Drop-In: Commodities Outlook – Why the oil market is heading back to a glut

Oil markets have spent months focused on conflict and supply disruption. But as ceasefire talks progress and energy flows recover, our Commodities team doesn't think the market is fully pricing the risk that oil markets return to glut conditions over the next year.

Our latest Commodities Outlook explains why our expectations for supply and demand leave the Capital Economics oil price forecast well below consensus, while also exploring the outlook for natural gas, metals and agricultural commodities. Join the report's authors for this concise briefing as they answer your questions and discuss the report's key issues, including:

• Why investors should brace for oil price volatility into 2027;
• Why we're sticking to our below-consensus $3,500 gold price forecast;
• Why aluminium could outperform copper; What El Niño is likely to mean for agricultural prices.