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OPEC+ watches on closely Israeli strikes on Iran and fears over the potential nature of Iranian retaliation sent Brent crude prices from ~$67pb to a peak of $78pb this week. While prices have since fallen back to $75pb at the time of writing, they are …
13th June 2025
The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced than we’d previously thought (rather than skewed to the …
President Trump’s claim that China has agreed to supply the US with “ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS… UP FRONT” might seem to draw a line under concerns about supply shortages and production shutdowns. But restrictions could be dialled back up. And as we set …
12th June 2025
Greater oil demand within OPEC+ economies – most notably Saudi Arabia – could offset additional supply from the group over the coming months and support oil prices. However, given that any boost to demand will be seasonal, we still think that Brent crude …
10th June 2025
OPEC+ frictions will take center stage from here The latest announcement from OPEC+ that it will continue to add oil to the market in July at a faster pace than it had planned a few months prior solidified a marked shift in the group’s output policy. …
6th June 2025
Note: we will be discussing oil, industrial metals tariffs, and more in an online briefing on Wednesday 4th June at 3pm BST. You can register here . Pressure picks up in commodity markets OPEC+’s announcement that it will continue to add oil to the market …
4th June 2025
The existing tariffs on aluminium and steel have already raised metals prices in the US relative to elsewhere, and it is logical to assume that the announced doubling of tariff rates will only exacerbate this effect. Against this backdrop, our Metals …
2nd June 2025
Tariffs: like Ross and Rachel Another week, another episode in what now feels like a long running drama series on President Trump’s tariff agenda. This week’s episode revealed fresh twists and turns as the US Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled that …
30th May 2025
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, …
The surplus in the EU carbon market dampened incentives to decarbonise in 2024, and the likelihood that the surplus is maintained until 2027 will keep a lid on carbon prices in the near term. Further ahead, a sharp contraction in the supply of carbon …
29th May 2025
In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade (CIT) tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the Republican-stacked Supreme Court. The upside risks …
Although the global tariff environment now appears to be heading towards a far more benign environment than had appeared likely a month or so ago, it still represents a demand shock that will prove a headwind to commodity demand and prices. Against an …
28th May 2025
Less favourable conditions for global goods production and trade will be yet another factor weighing on demand for industrial metals and supports our view that prices will fall by more than the consensus expects. While we expect price declines across …
27th May 2025
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused grain prices to surge to record levels in 2022, but a peace deal won’t lead to large falls in prices. This is mainly because Ukrainian grain production has already largely recovered from the war-related disruption. …
Note: we will be discussing oil, gold, industrial metals, and more in an online briefing on Wednesday 4th June at 3pm BST. You can register here . Not a literal Golden Dome… Gold bugs’ hearts will have skipped a beat when President Trump announced the …
23rd May 2025
The lack of an income stream makes it notoriously hard to value gold objectively. And while the price of gold relative to other assets – such as silver, oil and equities – is often used to assess the fair value of gold, structural changes over time can …
21st May 2025
US-Iran nuclear deal on the table Despite President Trump’s previous focus on pushing OPEC+ to loosen the taps and lower oil prices, there was surprisingly little explicit talk of oil prices during his trip to the Middle East. Instead, the biggest …
16th May 2025
After an extraordinary rally in gold prices, the recent pullback naturally raises the question of where gold prices may be headed next. In our view, the rest of this year will prove more challenging for gold prices than the first few months. However, the …
15th May 2025
Global Trade Stress Monitor …
13th May 2025
The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has much higher tariffs on China than on other countries and …
12th May 2025
$50 oil is not a pipe dream Plenty of oil market analysts, including ourselves, have slashed their price forecasts this week following the OPEC+ decision to raise output in June by more than the group had originally outlined for the second month in a row. …
9th May 2025
Downside risks from OPEC+ and Trump crystalise OPEC+’s announcement that it will pick up the pace of oil output increases for the second consecutive month in June helped to push oil prices to four-year lows. This represents a marked shift in policy from …
8th May 2025
Given the shift in OPEC+ policy over the weekend, the global oil market will, all else equal, be better supplied over the coming years than previously looked likely. Accordingly, having consistently flagged the downside risks to oil prices over the past …
6th May 2025
Riyadh ups the ante ahead of OPEC+ meeting Developments in the oil market once again took centre stage this week, with Brent crude prices set for their second consecutive weekly fall. The biggest news event of the week came courtesy of reports that Saudi …
2nd May 2025
It’s possible that the recent blackout on the Iberian peninsula goes down in history as a catalyst for widescale electricity grid upgrades which ultimately help to bolster the pace of the renewable rollout. But at least in developed economies, it’s …
1st May 2025
Oil prices have now fallen by about 18% since ‘Liberation Day’, and one could make the case for them being in oversold territory – particularly if US tariffs are rowed back further, as we expect. But further signs that Saudi Arabia is willing to push oil …
This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for Ukraine in peace talks, but Russia and Ukraine remain …
This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage across the value chain. And while volatile mineral prices …
30th April 2025
While higher lumber tariffs will not significantly impact GDP growth in the US or Canada, they will drive up costs for US homebuilders. As affordability is already stretched, it is unlikely that homebuilders will be able to pass these costs onto buyers in …
29th April 2025
Soybeans are once again caught in the firing line of the US-China trade war. There is plenty of uncertainty around the exact ramifications for the shape of global trading patterns and prices, but the key lesson from 2018 is that the risks to US soybeans …
25th April 2025
Note: we will be discussing the future of OPEC+, oil prices, and the Gulf in an online briefing on Wednesday 7 th May at 1pm BST. You can register here . Oil relief rally hits wall of supply uncertainty The various tariff-related row-backs and carveouts …
The US was the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2024 and demand for US LNG is set to increase markedly in the next few years. Demand for LNG will grow faster than US production in the near term, tightening the US domestic market. We think that this will …
24th April 2025
Lower oil demand forecasts are not low enough The IEA and OPEC both lowered their oil demand forecasts this week, reflecting the impact of Trump’s trade war with the rest of the world, though the forecasts still appear overly rosy. Given the uncertainty …
17th April 2025
Tariffs continue to buffet commodity markets Changes in US tariff policy continued to drive dramatic swings in commodity prices this week – Brent crude oil prices briefly hit a four-year low of $58.5pb in intraday trading on Wednesday. There is still a …
11th April 2025
President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other governments will be moderate. In this scenario, global GDP …
10th April 2025
Trump and OPEC+ cloud the outlook Commodity prices have been on a rollercoaster ride but, on net, many prices remain lower than before “Liberation Day”. In the coming months, our base case is that the 90-day pause on tariffs will be extended. That said, …
The lasting fallout on oil demand from President trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs and subsequent retaliation, coupled with OPEC+’s plan to quicken supply increases, pose a major downside to oil prices. There are still many moving parts at this stage and …
9th April 2025
While gold prices have edged down since “Liberation Day”, this is not unusual during a sudden equity market selloff. In fact, gold’s track record suggests that prices are likely to rise from here, especially if a worst-case scenario for the US economy and …
The aftermath of “Liberation Day” It was notable that most commodities received exemptions from the latest round of US tariffs. Nonetheless, commodity prices have fallen sharply on the back of global growth concerns. See here for our full assessment of …
4th April 2025
The exemptions granted to many commodities from reciprocal tariffs suggests that the Trump administration is reticent to drive a further wedge between US and international metals prices and/or risk boosting gasoline prices. More generally, against the …
3rd April 2025
We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3 rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here .) This Update contains answers to some of the questions that we received and links to several more …
With demand for LNG unlikely to keep pace with the looming surge in supply over the coming years, a glut of natural gas will weigh heavily on benchmark prices in Asia and Europe. Our forecasts for prices to fall to pre-pandemic levels over our forecast …
2nd April 2025
Ahead of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2 nd , dubbed “liberation day”, this Update addresses to what extent US commodities trade could be caught in the crossfire. The most exposed commodities are generally industrial metals, especially …
31st March 2025
Whilst buying gold may reduce central banks’ overall exposure to the dollar, we don’t think that the surge in central bank gold demand reflects a severe loss of confidence in the greenback. Instead, the perception of gold itself as a safe haven is …
Red hot, red metal As it stands, there is still no clarity on when, or indeed if , the US administration will announce tariffs on copper imports. The US Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, ostensibly has until November to prepare his report on …
28th March 2025
Despite President Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance, the uncertainty caused by tariff policy and his aim for lower oil prices is weighing on sentiment among fossil fuel producers. Sentiment will continue to sour as oil prices underperform producers’ …
27th March 2025
It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the Trump administration’s ideas to transform the entire …
25th March 2025
Following President Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan crude, the upside risks to oil prices from his foreign policy are crystallising. That said, OPEC+’s spare capacity and apparent willingness to raise output blunt some of the …
Overview – While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial metals are well below consensus. Gold is a …
24th March 2025
Gold smashes through $3k In what feels a lot like déjà vu at this point, gold set yet another record high this week, this time as it smashed through the $3,000 per ounce mark. The financial press have linked the latest leg up in the price over the last …
21st March 2025
