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This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage across the value chain. And while volatile mineral prices …
30th April 2025
While higher lumber tariffs will not significantly impact GDP growth in the US or Canada, they will drive up costs for US homebuilders. As affordability is already stretched, it is unlikely that homebuilders will be able to pass these costs onto buyers in …
29th April 2025
Soybeans are once again caught in the firing line of the US-China trade war. There is plenty of uncertainty around the exact ramifications for the shape of global trading patterns and prices, but the key lesson from 2018 is that the risks to US soybeans …
25th April 2025
Note: we will be discussing the future of OPEC+, oil prices, and the Gulf in an online briefing on Wednesday 7 th May at 1pm BST. You can register here . Oil relief rally hits wall of supply uncertainty The various tariff-related row-backs and carveouts …
The US was the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2024 and demand for US LNG is set to increase markedly in the next few years. Demand for LNG will grow faster than US production in the near term, tightening the US domestic market. We think that this will …
24th April 2025
Lower oil demand forecasts are not low enough The IEA and OPEC both lowered their oil demand forecasts this week, reflecting the impact of Trump’s trade war with the rest of the world, though the forecasts still appear overly rosy. Given the uncertainty …
17th April 2025
Tariffs continue to buffet commodity markets Changes in US tariff policy continued to drive dramatic swings in commodity prices this week – Brent crude oil prices briefly hit a four-year low of $58.5pb in intraday trading on Wednesday. There is still a …
11th April 2025
President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other governments will be moderate. In this scenario, global GDP …
10th April 2025
Trump and OPEC+ cloud the outlook Commodity prices have been on a rollercoaster ride but, on net, many prices remain lower than before “Liberation Day”. In the coming months, our base case is that the 90-day pause on tariffs will be extended. That said, …
The lasting fallout on oil demand from President trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs and subsequent retaliation, coupled with OPEC+’s plan to quicken supply increases, pose a major downside to oil prices. There are still many moving parts at this stage and …
9th April 2025
While gold prices have edged down since “Liberation Day”, this is not unusual during a sudden equity market selloff. In fact, gold’s track record suggests that prices are likely to rise from here, especially if a worst-case scenario for the US economy and …
The aftermath of “Liberation Day” It was notable that most commodities received exemptions from the latest round of US tariffs. Nonetheless, commodity prices have fallen sharply on the back of global growth concerns. See here for our full assessment of …
4th April 2025
The exemptions granted to many commodities from reciprocal tariffs suggests that the Trump administration is reticent to drive a further wedge between US and international metals prices and/or risk boosting gasoline prices. More generally, against the …
3rd April 2025
We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3 rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here .) This Update contains answers to some of the questions that we received and links to several more …
With demand for LNG unlikely to keep pace with the looming surge in supply over the coming years, a glut of natural gas will weigh heavily on benchmark prices in Asia and Europe. Our forecasts for prices to fall to pre-pandemic levels over our forecast …
2nd April 2025
Ahead of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2 nd , dubbed “liberation day”, this Update addresses to what extent US commodities trade could be caught in the crossfire. The most exposed commodities are generally industrial metals, especially …
31st March 2025
Whilst buying gold may reduce central banks’ overall exposure to the dollar, we don’t think that the surge in central bank gold demand reflects a severe loss of confidence in the greenback. Instead, the perception of gold itself as a safe haven is …
Red hot, red metal As it stands, there is still no clarity on when, or indeed if , the US administration will announce tariffs on copper imports. The US Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, ostensibly has until November to prepare his report on …
28th March 2025
Despite President Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance, the uncertainty caused by tariff policy and his aim for lower oil prices is weighing on sentiment among fossil fuel producers. Sentiment will continue to sour as oil prices underperform producers’ …
27th March 2025
It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the Trump administration’s ideas to transform the entire …
25th March 2025
Following President Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan crude, the upside risks to oil prices from his foreign policy are crystallising. That said, OPEC+’s spare capacity and apparent willingness to raise output blunt some of the …
Overview – While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial metals are well below consensus. Gold is a …
24th March 2025
Gold smashes through $3k In what feels a lot like déjà vu at this point, gold set yet another record high this week, this time as it smashed through the $3,000 per ounce mark. The financial press have linked the latest leg up in the price over the last …
21st March 2025
The Trump administration’s efforts to end to the war in Ukraine have raised the prospect of sanctions relief for Russia. This Focus outlines the main sanctions in place and the macroeconomic impact lifting them could have. While US sanctions relief …
20th March 2025
On the face of it, the US administration’s focus on lower oil prices, even at the cost of industry “disruption,” bodes ill for US oil production. That said, our forecast for WTI to fall to $56pb by end-2026 is consistent with output flatlining rather than …
17th March 2025
Tariffs drive divergence in metals price outlook The price premium for industrial metals in the US surged in anticipation of the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, which were implemented this week. For example, the Midwest premium for aluminum has jumped …
14th March 2025
For all the focus on a possible ‘Trumpcession’ and the related risks to US oil demand, it is worth noting that oil demand growth is already anaemic and our view on the US economy is consistent with demand stagnating or contracting slightly in 2025. While …
13th March 2025
Discipline difficulties meet demand delusion While we learned this week that OPEC+ is sticking to its plan to gradually raise oil output from April (see here ), question marks over production discipline within the group and the strength of global oil …
7th March 2025
Weak global demand a risk to OPEC+ plans The recent confirmation from OPEC+ that it intends to go ahead with the plans to gradually increase oil production from April has coincided with ongoing signs of weakness in global oil demand. Although OPEC+ has …
6th March 2025
Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go far enough to address the structural headwinds facing …
5th March 2025
Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are the go-to resources to keep up with the impact of …
4th March 2025
OPEC+’s plan to increase oil output by 2.2m barrels per day over the next 18 months or so risks saturating the global market and highlights the downside risks to our already below-consensus oil price forecasts. Despite ongoing tensions within OPEC+ about …
The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This would radically alter the shape of the fractured …
Metals, minerals, and oil are in Trump’s sights There were three key commodity-related developments from the White House this week. First, the US and Ukraine have agreed to jointly develop Ukraine’s energy and mineral reserves. We wrote about the key …
28th February 2025
This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for Ukraine under Trump is likely to come with strings …
26th February 2025
Commodities are trading in a hyperkinetic news cycle, with Donald Trump raising tariffs on US allies, China calibrating a response to ever-harsher punitive trade actions and the US and Russia re-engaging over Ukraine. And that’s even before the latest …
While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels. From an energy price perspective, the looming ramp-up …
24th February 2025
OPEC+ confusion highlights risks of another delay Another week, another chapter in the book of the ongoing drama around when and whether OPEC+ will start to unwind its voluntary output cuts. Reports early this week suggested that the group was considering …
21st February 2025
Whilst COMEX benchmark copper prices will be heavily influenced by President Trump’s plans for tariffs in the near term, the bigger picture is that weak demand growth and robust refined copper supply will weigh on global benchmark prices over the next few …
20th February 2025
The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the macroeconomic implications will depend on the features of …
18th February 2025
Trump-Putin call could ease upside risks for energy President Trump was at the centre of another whirlwind week in commodity markets, with his “lengthy and highly productive” phone call with President Putin giving energy traders in particular plenty to …
14th February 2025
Keeping track of “cost and chaos” in metals markets …
12th February 2025
Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley has poetically described the impacts in metals markets so far of President Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium as “a lot of cost and chaos”. Our new Metals Tariff Impact Tracker gives you a ringside view of how this …
China added five critical minerals to its export control list last week but stopped short of banning their sale. The move was intended as a warning to the Trump administration and to increase China’s leverage during future negotiations. If the US …
The direct impact on the global economy of President Trump’s latest proposed tariffs would be small since steel and aluminium account for a very small share of world trade. Canada’s economy is relatively exposed and it is likely that US steel prices would …
10th February 2025
Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs thrown its way. Although Canada and Mexico have been granted …
Note: Join us as we discuss how Donald Trump's moves to build out his policy agenda will affect energy, soft commodities, and metals markets in a Drop-in on Thursday 13th February 15:00 GMT/10:00 EST . Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. …
7th February 2025
A slowdown in the adoption of EVs – along with an increasing preference for hybrids – is likely to increase demand for platinum by a bit more than for palladium over the coming years. Accordingly, with the supply backdrop likely to remain constrained for …
6th February 2025
The renewable rollout in Saudi Arabia is set to accelerate on the back of cheap solar panel imports from China. Given that Saudi Arabia is one of a few countries that directly burns crude oil for electricity, this could add further downward pressure on …
5th February 2025
Against the backdrop of potential US tariffs, our new Oil Tariff Impact Tracker is a vital resource for tracking potential near-term changes in North American oil production, trade flows, and prices. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying …
