Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we now expect the group to unwind the remaining ~3mn bpd of voluntary output cuts at a decent clip over the next 18 months. Notwithstanding the small rebound in oil prices this week, we think that Brent crude prices will fall to $50 per barrel by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, we doubt that the EU’s plans to ban gas imports from Russia by end-2027 will prevent European TTF prices from falling back towards pre-pandemic levels over the next few years.
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