New (lower) oil price forecasts

Given the shift in OPEC+ policy over the weekend, the global oil market will, all else equal, be better supplied over the coming years than previously looked likely. Accordingly, having consistently flagged the downside risks to oil prices over the past year or so, we have cut our end-2025 and end-2026 forecasts for Brent crude to $60pb and $50pb respectively, well below the current consensus. 

Note: we will be discussing the future of OPEC+, oil prices, and the Gulf in an online briefing on Wednesday 7th May at 1pm BST/8am EST. You can register here.

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