The description of the global oil market as being “thirsty”, made by the Energy Minister of the UAE this week, risks confusing a seasonal pick-up in oil demand over the northern hemisphere summer as something more permanent. In our view, the combination of higher oil supply and weak demand fundamentals will see a substantial surplus open up in the oil market layer this year and into 2026, which will weigh on prices. Meanwhile, the looming introduction of copper tariffs in the US will bring an end to the front-running-related rush of copper into the country, and see bearish fundamentals reassert themselves on copper prices outside the US.
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