South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s experience. Trump was also busy hosting leaders from smaller African countries, but the outreach appears tactical rather than a long-term play and won’t do much to limit China’s geopolitical and economic influence in the wider region. Finally, the naira’s stability despite lower oil prices has been remarkable, but we do think high domestic inflation will trigger modest declines in the naira over the next two years.
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