Commodity prices have swung alongside the tariff news flow this week. While there is plenty of uncertainty around the implications of this week's developments, we know that product-specific tariffs will remain and will continue to contribute to higher premiums paid by US-end consumers. Elsewhere, if the ultimate outcome is that Trump cannot impose tariffs as aggressively as he'd like, which would be a boost to commodity demand relative to the existing tariff backdrop, then the risks to our generally downbeat commodity price forecasts might now lie to the upside.
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