On, off, and on again tariffs is a recipe for volatility

Commodity prices have swung alongside the tariff news flow this week. While there is plenty of uncertainty around the implications of this week's developments, we know that product-specific tariffs will remain and will continue to contribute to higher premiums paid by US-end consumers. Elsewhere, if the ultimate outcome is that Trump cannot impose tariffs as aggressively as he'd like, which would be a boost to commodity demand relative to the existing tariff backdrop, then the risks to our generally downbeat commodity price forecasts might now lie to the upside.