The decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace of output hikes in August cements our view that the downward pressure on oil prices will intensify over the next 18 months or so. Admittedly, we assume that OPEC+ will slow the pace of output hikes once it has unwound its first tranche of voluntary output cuts – which it now seems likely to do by the end of Q3. But the bigger picture is that we expect OPEC+ to continue to focus on regaining market share and so have no qualms about adding even more oil into an increasingly saturated market later this year and in 2026. All told, having stuck to our guns during June’s short-lived risk premium-driven oil price spike, we remain comfortable with our below-consensus forecasts for the price of Brent crude to fall to $60pb and $50pb by end-25 and end-26.
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