Commodities Weekly: Tensions bubble in OPEC+; Tariffs shake metals again

Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we believe this new faster pace of production rises is here to stay. That said, signs of growing tensions between Russia and Saudi Arabia are a key factor to watch. Meanwhile, we expect President Trump's new higher 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum in the near term will increase metals prices in the US relative to elsewhere. In the case of aluminium there is little capacity for higher domestic production to offset these price effects.