How quickly have OPEC+ been increasing output?

Despite some question marks being cast over whether the eight OPEC+ producers unwinding voluntary are keeping pace with the increases in quotas, our assessment is that they have added supply to the market at a decent pace so far. Rather than proceeding with unwinding the next layer of output cuts immediately, our new base case is that OPEC+ takes a breather before raising output again over H2 2026. This is still consistent with a large surplus in the market, putting prices on a downward trajectory.