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The economic consequences of the war

One immediate effect of the war in Ukraine will be to push Russia several places down the league table of the world’s largest economies. However, the impact on the global economy over the long run will depend to a large extent on its political and geo-political legacy. In view of the wider interest, we are making this Long Run Update available to clients of our Emerging Markets Overview & Global Services.
Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist
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More from The Long Run

Long Run Update

Composition of spending will change as populations age

The composition of spending changes as consumers age, with a greater proportion allocated to healthcare, food and drink, and less to education, transport and recreation. The experience of countries that have already aged significantly, such as Japan, suggests that this will have a significant impact on employment in these sectors in countries that are set to age rapidly over the coming decades. What’s more, this could weigh on productivity growth as the sectors likely to see the greatest increase in demand are typically more labour-intensive.

1 August 2022

Long Run Update

S&P 500’s valuation points to mediocre long-term returns

US equities have plunged this year, but the S&P 500’s valuation remains a long way from looking low on most measures, including Shiller’s CAPE. This is a key reason why we expect the returns from US equities over the next decade or so to fall well short of those seen over the past ten years.

25 July 2022

Long Run Update

Which countries can offer lessons for ageing populations?

Ageing populations will be one of the main structural challenges facing many economies over the coming decades. Ahead of a series of work analysing what can be learned from countries ageing rapidly, this Update starts by looking at which those are.

14 July 2022

More from Neil Shearing

Global Economics Update

Russia-Ukraine: a weekend catch-up

On the military front, while events remain in flux, the Russian advance has proceeded more slowly than had been anticipated. Kyiv, seemingly Russia’s main target, remains under the control of Ukraine’s government. Russia and Ukraine have agreed to peace talks in Belarus, which according to the Belarusian government are scheduled to start later today. But President Putin has also put Russia’s nuclear forces on “high alert” in response to an escalation in Western sanctions. The range of potential outcomes remains extremely wide, which, as we argued last week means it’s better to think in terms of scenarios and then consider the macro and market consequences than it is to take strong positions on the likely end-game. In view of the wider interest, we are making this Global Economics Update available to all clients.

28 February 2022

Global Economics Update

Recapping the economic and market fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis

The economic and market consequences of a war between Russia and Ukraine will depend on the severity of the conflict, and the response of the West. But in most cases the economic impact on countries beyond Russia and Ukraine is likely to be limited. The most significant consequence is likely to be that it will add to inflation pressures this year. In view of the wider interest, we are also making this Global Economics Update available to all clients.

22 February 2022

Global Economics Update

The US and euro-zone: different crises, different outlooks

The Q4 GDP data released over the past week underline the fact that the two largest developed markets – the US and euro-zone – have so far experienced very different crises and recoveries. These differences help to explain why economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to outpace that of the US this year and why, despite this, the ECB will face less pressure than the Fed to tighten policy.

1 February 2022
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