The surprise announcement last weekend by OPEC+ countries that they would make voluntary oil production cuts, even before the OPEC advisory committee met on Monday, pushed oil prices higher by about $5 per barrel. The decision means that the oil market will be tighter than we had expected this year and next, so we raised our end-2023 and end-2024 price forecasts to $90 pb and $80 pb, respectively.
Commodity prices will be driven by macroeconomic data releases over the next week (all covering last month). We think the US employment report due tomorrow will show a moderation in non-farm payroll growth. If we’re right, commodity prices, especially precious metal prices, could rise on lower interest rate expectations. Similarly, if the US inflation data due next week show a further cooling in price pressures in March, then prices may go up. Meanwhile, China should release trade data on Thursday. We expect a deeper y/y contraction in exports in March, but there will likely have been a modest recovery in imports.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services