Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) OPEC+ and China, not Trump, will drive prices in 2025 Trump’s election victory won’t have a big impact on commodity markets in the short term. US oil and gas production is near record highs and prices... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodity markets face trifecta of risks The next few weeks promise to be eventful ones for commodity markets. Not only will there be a new US president, but we may finally get details on the size of China’s fiscal stimulus as well as... 1st November 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US election not going to roil commodity markets The outcome of the US election won’t have a sizeable impact on most commodity prices over the next few months. Instead, differences between the candidates’ views on vehicle emissions, LNG exports and... 29th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU tariffs still not weighing on China's EV exports Following a record high in August, our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes edged down in September. Meanwhile, China’s exports of EVs to Europe surged despite the recent EU tariffs... 22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s fiscal vagueness sinks commodity prices The pledge at this weekend’s press conference to increase fiscal expenditure could support China’s commodity demand over the first half of 2025. But at this stage, none of the fiscal or monetary... 14th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the... 3rd October 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Update New China stimulus won’t lift commodity demand While the announcement of new stimulus measures by Chinese officials coincided with increases in many commodity prices, the package does not materially alter the outlook for China’s commodity demand... 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Outlook Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in... 24th September 2024 · 24 mins read
Commodities Weekly The Fed cuts, commodity prices rise but it won’t last The Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 bp gave most commodity prices a boost this week. We suspect that lower interest rates won’t have a sizeable impact on US commodity demand this quarter... 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Grain prices set to fall (if La Niña doesn’t get in the way) While media attention has been on the soaring prices of coffee and cocoa, the prices of many grains have slid lower since the start of the year. We think that prices will fall further by the end of... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its... 5th September 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Escondida strike; China tightens grip on antimony The strike at the world’s largest copper mine, Chinese export curbs on another critical mineral and the iron ore price tumbling to a yearly low rocked metals and minerals markets this week. While we... 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Commodities have not been immune to the recent turmoil in financial markets, with the prices of most industrial metals, agricultural, and energy commodities extending their downward trends over the... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sell-off in oil markets has gone too far The sharp fall in oil prices over the past week shows that fears of a US recession have so far outweighed concerns about conflict in the Middle East. But we think that oil prices have fallen too far... 6th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Olympic medals to lose their shine before long The start of the Paris Olympic Games today suggests that there will be renewed interest in gold, silver and bronze. We suspect that athletes will be disappointed by the fact that the Olympic medals... 26th July 2024 · 3 mins read
