Russia’s giveaways, NBP’s hawkishness, Turkey and SDRs

Russia's government this week unveiled new lump-sum payments to pensioners and military personnel ahead of September's election, strengthening our above-consensus views on inflation and interest rates. Meanwhile, the minutes of the Polish central bank's July meeting highlighted more clearly the criteria for starting to raise interest rates: while there is a growing chance that the criteria are met in November, for now we're keeping our forecasts for tightening to start in 2022. Finally, Turkey received its $6.3bn SDR allocation from the IMF this week. While helpful, it's a drop in the ocean compared to Turkey's large external financing needs.
Liam Peach Emerging Markets Economist
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