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Answering your questions on our market forecasts

We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop-In and answers several of the questions that we received but didn’t have time to answer during the event.
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More from Global Markets

Global Markets Update

Challenges ahead for Brazil’s stock market

Brazil’s stock market has fared better than most this year, but we forecast it to fall ~15% over the rest of 2022. And while we expect it to rebound over the following couple of years, we think falling commodity prices and mounting fiscal risks will limit the scale of its rally.

12 August 2022

Global Markets Update

Central bank “pivots” and the recent equity market rally

The anticipation of quick reversals of central bank rate hikes has probably supported equity markets of late, but we suspect investors have become overly optimistic and still think equity prices will end this year, in general, below their current levels.

12 August 2022

Global Markets Update

What a Taiwan Strait crisis could mean for markets

While China-Taiwan tensions haven’t yet caused ructions in global financial markets, any escalation that threatened to disrupt trade and/or financial flows almost certainly would. This Update explores the potential ramifications of such an event across bond, equity and FX markets. Markets Drop-In (9th Aug): Chief Markets Economist John Higgins leads this 20-minute briefing on our latest quarterly Outlook reports from our Global Markets, Asset Allocation and FX Markets services. Register now.  

5 August 2022

More from Global Markets Team

Global Markets Outlook

Further pain may still be in store for global markets

We think the rises in global government bond yields – and falls in equity prices – have not run their course yet. Yields have typically peaked only shortly before the ends of central bank tightening cycles and we doubt this one will be different. We expect this, as well as the threat of slowing growth, to keep risky assets, such as equities and corporate bonds, under pressure until around the middle of next year. But we suspect markets will eventually turn a corner as tightening cycles draw to a close, with bond yields generally beginning to fall back later next year and equities starting to post solid – albeit not spectacular – gains. Global Outlook Drop-In (4th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): Our Global Economics team will be answering your questions as they and discuss their Q2 Outlook report in this special 20-minute briefing. Register to learn more about our above-consensus views on inflation and rates and how these feed our below-consensus take on the growth outlook. Register now

29 April 2022

EM Markets Chart Book

What the war and Fed tightening could mean for EM assets

As a result of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Fed’s hawkish pivot, we have tweaked our forecasts for most major emerging market (EM) assets. The big picture, though, is that we still think EM equities will generally make small gains over the remainder of the year, and we still expect bond yields to rise a bit further over that period in most cases.

30 March 2022

DM Markets Chart Book

How the war in Ukraine has changed our thinking

The war in Ukraine, as well as the hawkish tone adopted by some developed market (DM) central banks, have led us to revise up our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for government bond yields in some DMs and to lower our projections for DM equities generally. Commodities Drop-In (24 March, 11:00 EDT/15:00 GMT): Our Commodities team will be exploring how the war in Ukraine is shaking up commodity markets, from oil to wheat, while tackling some of the big market questions – not least whether we’re in for 1970s-style oil supply shocks. Register here.

23 March 2022
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