Commodities Update Oil market traders bracing for prolonged disruption Extreme volatility in front-month oil prices has captured the headlines, but there have also been large moves in the shape of the oil futures curve and in the options market. As it stands, investors... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Limited signs of distress in financial markets amid Iran War While the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has led to a surge in volatility across most major asset classes, there are limited signs of distress in core money markets. That may change if the war... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Revisiting the risks around private credit Private credit funds have attracted growing scrutiny amid falling valuations and its exposure to software companies. Under a severe default scenario, losses might amount to around 0.4% of US GDP. That... 11th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update EM assets have further to fall if Iran conflict intensifies While EM financial markets have started to stabilise following the recent selloff, they are vulnerable to a further deterioration in risk sentiment. Markets in EMEA appear most exposed due to... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions and answers about the LNG crisis In light of the escalating crisis in the Middle East, including the cessation of LNG production in Qatar, this Update provides broader context about global LNG trade and the implications for energy... 3rd March 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The effects of surging energy prices on global growth and rates A prolonged conflict in the Middle East pushing oil to $90-100pb for a sustained period would be a significant headwind for the global economy. Importers such as the euro-zone would be hit hardest... 3rd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US market implications of a spike in oil prices This Update considers whether any lessons can be learned from the oil crisis of the early 1970s when it comes to the potential effects on Treasuries and US equities from the current conflict in the... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update What the “Starmer drama” means for Gilts and Sterling Keir Starmer appears to have fended off the latest challenge to his leadership, but his premiership hangs by a thread. This Update examines what previous political episodes can tell us about what his... 11th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Rally in South African assets to run out of steam After a record-breaking year, we think the rally in South African assets will lose momentum, given that there is little scope for risk premia to compress much further and we expect precious metals... 29th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update How would Japan respond to a further surge in yields? Should JGB yields continue to surge, PM Takaichi may be forced to offset some of the expansionary fiscal measures announced recently with tightening elsewhere. However, those moves may not be seen as... 21st January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Venezuela’s vast energy potential to remain untapped Despite President Trump’s obvious desire for US oil companies to ramp up activity in Venezuela, lower oil prices and political uncertainty will frustrate efforts to exploit its vast energy potential... 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Bonds & Equities Three key themes for financial markets in 2026 We think the AI bubble will keep inflating, and that 2026 will be another good year for risk more broadly. Meanwhile, we expect the bond market to keep muddling through, and the dollar to rebound... 16th December 2025 · 6 mins read
