Global Markets Update What to make of the market summer squall Conditions have stabilised after a turbulent few weeks in financial markets, and we expect the rebound in equity markets over the past week or so to continue. Our assessment is that the market fallout... 15th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update East Asian equities could outperform again before long Equity markets in East Asia suffered very sharp declines earlier this week, but have generally recovered since. We think the rebound has scope to go a lot further as recession fears in the US prove... 9th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update No Olympic truce for French and other EZ spreads While the recent financial market meltdown has pushed some euro-zone government bond spreads up, we don’t see good reasons for risk sentiment to remain so downbeat. So we expect the upward pressure on... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update This feels less like 2000 than 1998, and even then … We doubt the AI-fuelled rally in global equities has burst, despite a rout in the stock market in the US after some disappointing data there last week and a plunge in Asian indices today. It feels... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Scepticism warranted on China’s capital market reforms We think the capital market reforms announced as part of China’s Third Plenum won’t be enough to reinvigorate China’s equities, which we think will provide disappointing long-run returns. 26th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update India’s budget no boon for the country’s bonds & stocks Strong public investment growth alongside overall fiscal prudence have contributed to the rallies in India’s bond and stock markets over the past couple of years. However, we don’t see much in the... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response First thoughts on the global IT outage The global IT outages affecting Windows software are causing huge temporary disruption to certain sectors including travel and healthcare, but while things are still very uncertain we do not... 19th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update The Third Plenum and China’s bond rally China’s bond market seems to be caught between the country’s slowing economy and the PBOC’s desire to push long-end yields higher. The announcements from the Third Plenum this week probably won’t help... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Swiss-German bond yield spread likely to narrow slightly We anticipate the spread between 10-year Swiss and German government bond yields, which has widened significantly since 2022, will narrow only slightly over the next couple of years. 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update What next for France? The results of France’s parliamentary elections mean it should avoid the large, unfunded fiscal expansion that two of the three major political groups were advocating. But it also means France is very... 8th July 2024 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update AI bubble could continue to inflate, in the US and globally We think the S&P 500 will make further gains over the coming months, even though it’s already fared well this year and is approaching our existing end-year forecast. As such, we’ve revised that... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk premia on Latin American assets may rise further Latin American assets have generally underperformed those elsewhere of late, in part driven by rising risk premia on the region’s assets. We think these risk premia may rise further over the coming... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty might push French OAT yields even higher The 10-year yield spread between government bonds in France and Germany has risen above 80bp, its highest since the euro-zone debt crisis. Should the far-right National Rally be in a position to form... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Why we think the 10-year Treasury yield will fall further We are retaining our forecast that the 10-year Treasury yield will fall to 4.0% by the end of this year. That reflects our expectation that the Fed will pursue a slightly looser conventional monetary... 13th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Parsing the market’s verdict on recent EM elections Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have generated sizeable reactions in their financial markets over the past week or so, highlighting the potential for electoral surprises to generate short... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
