Skip to main content

EMs and the war: one year on

The war in Ukraine, which marks its one year anniversary on Friday, has had a profound impact on the emerging world. Ukraine’s economy has collapsed, while Russia’s has contracted too even though the imposition of sanctions has not been as severe as initially expected. For other EMs, the main impact has come through the surge in commodity prices. That has boosted export earnings for commodity producers. But it also meant that inflation has risen much further than we thought it would 12 months ago, forcing central banks to hike interest rates much more aggressively. A year on, some of these effects are beginning to unwind, but elevated inflation and high interest rates will nevertheless continue to drag on growth in many EMs over the coming quarters.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services

Get access