Giulia Bellicoso

Giulia Bellicoso joined the Graduate Training Program in September 2022. Before joining the company, Giulia was working as an intern in the macroeconomics department of Euromobiliare Advisory SIM, a wealth management company based in Milan. She holds an undergraduate degree in International Economics and Finance and a master’s degree in Economic and Social Sciences from Bocconi university. While studying, she took part in the exchange program at the Yale-NUS college in Singapore, and she worked as a Research Assistant for the Bocconi finance research center, BAFFI CAREFIN. She speaks fluent Italian, Spanish and French.

Euro-zone Economic Outlook

ECB to keep policy tight despite recession

The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending...

28th March 2023 27 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

Assessing the inflation threat from EM labour markets

Labour markets look very tight in Central Europe and a handful of other EMs (particularly in Latin America), and we think that wage growth is unlikely to fall far enough in these countries to bring...

2nd March 2023 19 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

PMIs: industrial downturn bottoming out

The manufacturing PMIs for February remained very weak in most EMs, but they did at least provide signs that industry across much of the emerging world has fared better so far this year than it did in...

1st March 2023 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Book

EMs and the war: one year on

The war in Ukraine, which marks its one year anniversary on Friday, has had a profound impact on the emerging world. Ukraine’s economy has collapsed, while Russia’s has contracted too even though the...

22nd February 2023 8 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor

Foreign capital inflows have been soft this year in spite of the improvement in the economic outlook for EMs and the weaker dollar. And the very latest data suggest that capital has flowed out of EMs...

9th February 2023 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM industry: brighter outlook, but headwinds persist

The manufacturing PMIs picked up in most emerging markets in January, offering hope that the worst for EM industry may have now passed. But activity remains soft against the backdrop of high interest...

1st February 2023 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM consumers: now feeling the pinch

Consumer spending in emerging markets initially recovered quickly from the pandemic, but it looks like high interest rates and inflation caused spending growth to slow sharply over the second half of...

27th January 2023 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Book

EM prospects brighten at the start of the year

The outlook for emerging markets is looking better than it did just a few weeks ago. Most obviously, China’s shift to living with COVID means that its economy will rebound far sooner than we had...

24th January 2023 9 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor

Foreign capital inflows into EMs have picked up a little since the beginning of the year. This should provide some relief to those countries with sizeable current account deficits, including Chile...

11th January 2023 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM industry: ends 2022 on a weak footing

Although the manufacturing PMIs for December picked up in some highly-open EMs in Asia and Central Europe, industry in these countries remains very weak. And the surveys suggest that activity has...

3rd January 2023 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Book

Tightening cycles in their final throes

Tightening cycles have been a key feature of 2022 across the emerging world, but the end is in sight as we enter 2023. Some EM central banks that began tightening early – for example Brazil, Chile and...

21st December 2022 8 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

A difficult year ahead

The sharp slowdown in EM GDP growth seen in 2022 is likely to be followed by further weakness across most of the emerging world in 2023. Sluggish growth and falling inflation will at least allow...

20th December 2022 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor

Foreign capital inflows into EMs picked up sharply over the past month amidst improved investor risk appetite and a depreciating US dollar. But there are signs in the very latest data points that...

6th December 2022 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM industry set to slow further

The EM manufacturing PMI broadly plateaued in November, but the surveys remained weak in parts of Central Europe and recorded sharp declines in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam. On the bright side, price...

1st December 2022 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM GDP: rebound in Q3, but headwinds building

EM GDP rebounded in Q3, but this is unlikely to be the start of a sustained upturn. Headwinds in the form of high inflation, tight monetary policy and weak external demand will drag on growth in the...

30th November 2022 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Book

EM inflation has passed the peak

Having surged for the best part of two years, EM inflation appears to have passed the peak in this cycle. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation dropped from 7.8% y/y in September to 7.4% y/y in...

23rd November 2022 9 mins read