Giulia Bellicoso

Global Markets Update

Risk premia on Turkish assets may stay low

The risk premia on Turkish assets are now low relative to the past decade or so. We think that will remain the case over the coming quarters, given the positive global risk-on attitude and the ongoing...

Capital Daily

Gilt yields may fall by more than Treasury yields

Today’s UK CPI release has not made a sustained impact on investors’ expectations over the path of Bank Rate, and the market pricing implies that investors are still discounting fewer cuts from the...

Capital Daily

Dovish ECB supports our view that Bund yields will fall back

Today’s ECB policy announcement and press conference support our forecast for a June rate cut. Given that we expect more rate cuts than the money market discounts, we think that Bund yields will fall...

Asset Allocation Outlook

Asset allocation in an equity bubble

We expect equities to outperform most other assets as an AI-fuelled bubble continues to inflate, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing cycles. In particular, we...

Global Markets Update

Euro-zone sovereign spreads may have limited scope to fall

We expect the spreads between the yield of the 10-year German bund and its ‘riskier’ counterparts in other euro-zone economies to narrow only a little further this year. If anything, we think that the...

Global Markets Update

EM dollar bond yields could fall

We think Emerging Market (EM) dollar bond yields will fall in general by the end of this year, thanks both to lower US Treasury yields and, in some cases, narrower spreads. But the sovereign dollar...

UK Commercial Property Focus

Why this will be the slowest global recovery on record

Relatively high interest rates and structural problems within offices will weigh on the commercial real estate recovery over the next three years. Indeed, we forecast the upturn will be weaker than in...

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Jan. 24)

UK Commercial Property Outlook

A recovery, but not much of one

With property yields close to a peak and rental growth surprising on the upside, total returns will turn positive in 2024. But we doubt the fall in risk-free interest rates we expect will trigger any...

Europe Commercial Property Update

Stronger supply cuts Madrid office outperformance

A robust labour market will support Spanish office occupier demand to a greater extent than elsewhere in the euro-zone in the next few years. As a result, we think prime office rent growth will...

Europe Commercial Property Update

What does the recent rebound in REIT prices tell us?

At face value, the rebound in European equity REIT prices over recent months suggests that capital values could be nearing their trough. But the past relationship is weak and REITs have benefited from...

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Dec. 23)

Net lending to commercial property increased for the tenth consecutive month in December, but investment sentiment remained downbeat. Looking ahead, we expect investment to slowly recover over H1 2024...

UK Commercial Property Update

RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4 2023)

Having deteriorated for the best part of 2023, sentiment over all-property occupier demand and rents improved in Q4. However, the balances remain negative, pointing to subdued demand and rental growth...

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jan. 24)

Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will stabilise in the first quarter of 2024. But given historically narrow yield spreads, we doubt we will...

UK Housing Market Update

Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2023)

The latest Credit Conditions Survey showed a rise in the availability of mortgage credit in Q4 as financial market interest rates fell, but demand for mortgages slipped as mortgage rates took time to...