The stronger-than-expected April US Employment Report published today leaves us comfortable with our central scenario that the trade war won’t be enough to tip the US economy into recession. So, we think the Fed will keep its focus on inflation and stand pat this year. Since we expect less easing than priced into money markets, we see scope for Treasury yields to edge up further by end-2025.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services