The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well so far, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or (in China's case) have avoided high tariffs by shipping via third countries. So long as this remains the case, we expect EM growth to undergo a moderate slowdown this year. Even so, concerns about the hit to activity from tariffs have prompted a dovish shift by central banks. Interest rates are likely to fall further than most expect in Asia and parts of Latin America, but remain higher than most anticipate in Central and Eastern Europe.
We're hosting in-person roundtables at our London office on the EM winners and losers from US trade protectionism at 9am/12.30pm BST on Wednesday 25th June. (Register here.)
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