Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany, but a further sharp fall in growth from here seems unlikely. Indeed, most countries should see growth accelerate a little over the course of 2015. In contrast, the big drag on regional growth is likely to come from its two largest economies – Russia and Turkey. All told, we expect that regional GDP is likely to expand by less than 1% next year – the weakest outturn since 2009. Poland will remain among the region’s best performers, while at the other end of the scale recession-hit Russia is likely to be the worst.
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