Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are below the consensus. Monetary tightening cycles have come to an end in Central Europe, but we don’t expect interest rate cuts until the second half of next year and our policy rate forecasts are generally more hawkish than investors’ expectations. Currencies will remain vulnerable to a further deterioration in global risk appetite, with risks concentrated in Turkey, Hungary and Romania.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services