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Drop-In: The natural gas market in the European winter

A mild winter 2022/23 helped Europe dodge a bullet of high gas prices. Will the economy’s luck run out this winter, driving up demand and prices, or have the ripple effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine changed the game?

Our Commodities and Europe teams held a special briefing about what to expect from European gas demand around the turn of the year – and beyond – and the implications for prices.

Commodities Economist Ed Gardner presented his new analysis on the cyclical and structural forces at play in determining European gas demand and market pricing, while Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham explained the macroeconomic underpinnings and outline what this all means for the euro-zone inflation outlook.

During this 20-minute session, Ed and Andrew addressed key issues, including: 

  • Inflation, tightening and recession – how macro forces are affecting European gas demand;
  • The structural changes taking place in the European gas market;
  • European gas demand and the near to long-term outlook for gas prices.
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