My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

The outlook for housing in a post-COVID world

Even after the immediate threat of COVID has receded, we expect as many as 50% of office-based employees will work from home at least once a week. But the move away from cities and toward the suburbs should prove short-lived. Most of those leaving cities will have brought forward a planned move, and changes in relative prices will rebalance demand. With…
Matthew Pointon Senior Property Economist
Continue reading

More from US Housing

US Housing Market Update

Higher rates to prevent rise in homeownership

The odds are stacking up against first-time buyers (FTBs), an important demographic for homeownership. A very limited number of starter homes on the market, higher interest rates, tight credit conditions and a weak outlook for new home sales all point to the rise in the homeownership rate in recent years coming to an end.

5 August 2022

US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Jul.)

Both refinancing and home purchase activity continued to trend lower in July, with the latter down by around 30% since the start of the year. Against a backdrop of stretched affordability and record-low homebuyer sentiment, we expect home purchase applications will remain subdued in the second half of the year.

3 August 2022

US Housing Market Update

Tight supply limits threat from rising construction

The current surge in homes under construction has few parallels with the building boom that preceded the house price crash in the late 2000s. The build-up of homes under construction has largely been caused by delays in sourcing materials and labour, rather than overbuilding. Many of the uncompleted homes have already been sold and a tight market will help soak up the extra supply even as demand eases. We therefore think the threat from oversupply is small.

29 July 2022

More from Matthew Pointon

US Housing Market Chart Book

Home demand drops as prices surge

Despite mortgage rates seeing little movement in recent months, mortgage applications for home purchase have dropped to their lowest level since April last year. That implies home sales have further to fall. Booming house prices, which reached a record high 15% y/y in April, and a shortage of inventory are constraining sales. While low mortgage rates mean affordability is still historically favourable, lenders are not easing lending standards and that will be weighing on purchasing power. By contrast, rental demand is recovering as cities have reopened. The recovery in the labour market will cut arrears, and strong earnings will help boost rental growth. Total apartment returns will average a healthy 6% p.a from 2021-25.

7 July 2021

US Commercial Property Outlook

Major Apartment Markets Outlook (Q2 2021)

With cities reopening apartment demand will see a substantial rise this year, boosted by the arrival of households who delayed a move last year. Vacancy rates will fall back in all six major cities covered in this Outlook with those hit hardest during the pandemic, NYC and D.C., enjoying the most vigorous recovery in demand as tenants return. Strong prospects for NOI growth mean yields will either edge back or hold steady this year, driving substantial capital growth in all the cities. Beyond that, a gradual rise in yields and shift to larger apartments will weigh on returns. But even San Francisco, which will suffer from its high concentration of tech workers, should see total average returns of around 5.0% p.a. from 2021-25. At the other end of the spectrum, D.C. will outperform with average total returns of 8.5% p.a.

29 June 2021

US Housing Market Update

Valuations still reasonable despite house price boom

The housing market hit a milestone in April, with real house prices rising above the previous peak recorded during the boom of the mid-2000s. But that doesn’t mean valuations are at dangerous levels. House prices look far more reasonable when gains in incomes and falls in mortgage interest rates are taken into account. With house price growth now set to slow, the prospect of another bubble forming is therefore low.

22 June 2021
↑ Back to top