US Apartment Metros Outlook: Houston apartment market set for lift-off

The size and speed of the apartment market recovery will vary widely across the 17 metros we cover over our five-year forecast. Southern markets are generally set to outperform, backed by strong demand fundamentals and solid rental growth. Houston stands out, where we expect rent growth to average 4.5% per year in 2025-29 and total returns of 9% per year. The main outlier is Miami, where a still huge supply pipeline is likely to push the vacancy rate to 9% – higher than it is today and the highest among all metros. While Phoenix and Boston should perform well, major and western markets overall will trail. The worst performer will be D.C., with elevated vacancy driving further capital value declines and muted total returns of under 4% per year.