Long Run Returns Monitor (Jul. 2021)

While emerging market equities have generally struggled since the previous edition of our Long Run Returns Monitor was published, most other asset classes have fared reasonably well. Most notably, government bond yields have fallen across the board, developed market real estate investment trusts (REITs) have made strong gains, and equities at the global level have also risen, buoyed by the strength of the US stock market. The key upshot is that the new higher starting points for many asset classes mean that our projected returns from them over the next decade or so are generally a bit less positive than they were roughly a month ago. We continue to forecast that the returns from bonds will be meagre, those from equities and REITs reasonable rather than stellar, and those from commodities poor.
Oliver Allen Markets Economist
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Long Run Returns Monitor

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Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 23rd November 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

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