Justin Chaloner

Justin Chaloner is a Senior Economist for our Global Economics Service. He helps lead The Long Run, our dedicated long-term research service, and CE Interactive, our data and charting tool. Prior to joining Capital Economics in October 2013, Justin was a research analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch specialising in equity strategy. Justin has a degree in Economics from Cambridge University.

Long Run Economic Outlook

Fracturing to reshape the global economic system

The Ukraine war has added to the forces reshaping the global economic system into two US-led and China-led economic spheres. While the economic diversity of the US-bloc should help it to adapt...

13th February 2023 1 hr, 10 mins read

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Q4)

Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this...

25th November 2022 1 min read

Global Economics Focus

When will tourism recover from the pandemic?

The post-pandemic recovery in travel and tourism still has some way to go in parts of the world that have been slower to lift restrictions, such as in Asia. And China’s reluctance to move away from...

15th September 2022 15 mins read

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Q3)

12th August 2022 1 min read

Long Run Update

Composition of spending will change as populations age

The composition of spending changes as consumers age, with a greater proportion allocated to healthcare, food and drink, and less to education, transport and recreation. The experience of countries...

1st August 2022 4 mins read

Long Run Update

Which countries can offer lessons for ageing populations?

Ageing populations will be one of the main structural challenges facing many economies over the coming decades. Ahead of a series of work analysing what can be learned from countries ageing rapidly...

14th July 2022 3 mins read

Long Run Update

UN forecasts confirm broad demographic headwinds

The UN’s latest population projections highlight that demographic headwinds are set to mount in almost all economies outside Africa. The most significant downward revisions were to its forecasts for...

13th July 2022 4 mins read

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Q2)

12th May 2022 1 min read

Long Run Update

Which COVID-behavioural changes are permanent?

We argued two years ago that the pandemic would accelerate changes that were already underway rather than trigger behavioural changes out of the blue. Now that most restrictions have been removed in...

6th May 2022 4 mins read

Long Run Focus

How inequality affects the long-run outlook

Substantial fiscal support helped to prevent a big rise in income inequality within developed economies during the pandemic. But inequality was rising in many DMs before then and could revert to that...

3rd May 2022 18 mins read

Long Run Update

Ageing a bigger threat than pandemic to public debt

We expect governments in advanced economies to take action to prevent public sector debt ratios from spiralling out of control as their populations age. However, this is uncertain, and the risk is...

28th January 2022 3 mins read

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Nov.)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections...

25th November 2021 1 min read

Long Run Update

COP26 a small step forward but much left to do

COP26 has progressed efforts to fight climate change, but there is still a significant gap between pledges and actual policies. Unless action ramps up this decade, countries may face a choice between...

16th November 2021 3 mins read

Long Run Update

The implications of accelerated renewable electricity use

Accelerated adoption of renewable electricity will cause demand and prices of coal and natural gas to fall over the long run. While we think the global economy will handle this transition well, there...

15th October 2021 3 mins read

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Sep.)

29th September 2021 1 min read

Long Run Update

Are we on the way to a bigger state?

While it may take years or decades before the evidence is clear, there are tentative signs that the pandemic has accelerated a shift towards a bigger role for the state in advanced economies.

24th September 2021 3 mins read