Gulf countries move to lift containment measures

High levels of vaccine coverage have paved the way for policymakers across the Gulf to lift measures to contain COVID-19 over the past month or so. The UAE remains ahead of the pack in the vaccine race and has started to deliver booster jabs in recent weeks. Vaccine rollouts elsewhere in the Gulf have gathered pace and most countries have now inoculated upwards of 60 out every 100 people with at least one dose. Easing restrictions, coming alongside rising oil production and higher oil prices providing scope for fiscal policy to be loosened, means that economic recoveries in the Gulf are likely to gather pace over the rest of this year and into 2022.
William Jackson Chief Emerging Markets Economist
Continue reading

More from Middle East

Middle East Economics Weekly

Omicron, tourism and the oil market

Low vaccine coverage and large tourism sectors mean that the non-Gulf economies are particularly vulnerable to the emergence of the Omicron variant. Meanwhile, the drop in oil prices and the likelihood that OPEC+ raises oil output more slowly than previously envisaged has increased the downside risks to our GDP growth forecasts for the Gulf.

2 December 2021

Middle East Economics Update

Saudi economy set for a strong end to the year

The economic recovery in Saudi Arabia has picked up pace and should end the year on a strong note. The emergence of the Omicron variant has clouded the outlook, but for now we expect economic growth in the Kingdom to strengthen in 2022 on the back of rising oil output.

2 December 2021

Middle East Chart Book

MENA and the Omicron risks

The Middle East and North African economies are potentially among the most vulnerable to the fallout from the Omicron strain of COVID-19. The North African economies as well as Lebanon and Jordan have low vaccination rates and large tourism sectors, leaving them exposed to the risk of tighter restrictions and curbs on international travel. In the Gulf, vaccination rates are much higher and, Dubai aside, tourism sectors are relatively small. But the fall in energy prices could prompt governments to hold off loosening fiscal policy. And producers may raise oil output more slowly, which would weigh on economic growth.

30 November 2021

More from William Jackson

Emerging Europe Chart Book

Inflation pressures mount as activity rebounds

Recoveries across Emerging Europe accelerated in Q2 as the easing of virus restrictions pushed GDP to, or above, pre-pandemic levels in most countries and we think this momentum will continue in Q3. However, the recovery has been accompanied by a marked increase in price pressures. Consumer and producer price inflation reached multi-year highs in July and shows no sign of letting up. We think inflation will fall only slightly in Russia and Turkey by year-end and will rise further above central banks’ targets in most of Central Europe. Interest rates are likely to be raised further in Russia, Ukraine, Czechia and Hungary and the risks are skewed to tightening cycles starting earlier than we currently expect in Poland and Romania.

26 August 2021

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil: could a savings drawdown lift the recovery?

We estimate that Brazilian households have ‘excess’ savings worth around 6% of GDP resulting from the pandemic. These should help to cushion consumer spending in the face of headwinds caused by rising inflation and unwinding fiscal support, but we think it’s unlikely that there will be a rapid drawdown of savings that would turbocharge the recovery.

26 August 2021

Latin America Data Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug. 2021)

The rise in Brazilian inflation to 9.3% y/y in the middle of August provides Copom with plenty to worry about and will keep it on course to hike the Selic rate by another 100bp (to 6.25%) next month.

25 August 2021
↑ Back to top