Manufacturing PMIs (July)

The PMIs for July suggest that supply chain disruptions weighed on output in Czechia and Poland and continued to put upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the releases suggest that manufacturing demand softened in Russia but strengthened in Turkey. The recent rise in new virus cases in the latter is a concern.
Nicholas Farr Assistant Economist
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Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey GDP (Q3 2021)

Turkey’s economy put in another strong performance in Q3 but, as the effects of the recent currency crisis filter through, it is likely to suffer a contraction in Q4. The only crumb of comfort is that the downturn is likely to prove less severe than that which followed the 2018 crisis.   Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

30 November 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.)

The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for November showed a broad-based rise in industrial sentiment, but services sentiment softened further. With restrictions on activity being re-imposed amid surging virus cases and concern over the new ‘Omicron’ COVID-19 variant, the regional recovery is likely to slow in the coming months.

29 November 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Lira crisis, MNB hikes, Ukraine-IMF, Romanian politics

This week has been dominated by the collapse in the Turkish lira and all our research on the crisis can be found here. While Turkey’s problems have been driven by a ‘head-in-the-sand’ approach to inflation and falls in the lira, Hungary’s central bank tightened policy further this week amid signs that officials across Central Europe are taking the inflation fight more seriously and becoming less tolerant of currency weakness. Elsewhere, the early signs are that a new grand coalition in Romania does not have the appetite for much-needed austerity. Finally, the latest tranche of IMF funds provide a welcome boost for Ukraine’s economy.
Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

26 November 2021

More from Nicholas Farr

Emerging Europe Data Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (July)

The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed a surprising fall in regional sentiment in July, but we suspect that this was a blip rather than the start of a trend. We still expect growth to be strong in Q3, although evidence of growing price pressures in the survey suggests inflation pressures will remain high.

29 July 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel’s virus resurgence, re-opening inflation in CEE

The experience of Israel in recent weeks serves as a reminder that vaccine campaigns across Emerging Europe still have some way to go and that we are likely to have to learn to live with COVID long term. Meanwhile, the breakdown of the June inflation figures released this week for Poland and Czechia showed that price pressures in services sectors have picked up strongly since the re-opening. This may give some more ammunition to the hawks at the Czech central bank but we don’t think it will change the assessment at Poland’s central bank that the rise in inflation this year will be transitory.

16 July 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (June)

The PMIs for June suggest that manufacturing sectors strengthened in Turkey, Czechia and Poland but weakened in Russia. Meanwhile, in Czechia and Poland, supply chain disruptions intensified, and there was further evidence of price pressures building across the region.

1 July 2021
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