My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Evergrande circling the plughole

Evergrande’s collapse would be the biggest test that China’s financial system has faced in years. Policymakers’ main priority would be the households that have handed over deposits for properties that haven’t yet been finished. The company’s other creditors would suffer. Markets don’t seem concerned about the potential for financial contagion at the moment. That would change in the event of large-scale default, though the PBOC would step in with liquidity support if fears intensified.
Mark Williams Chief Asia Economist
Continue reading

More from China

China Data Response

China Trade (Jul.)

Exports held up well last month, thanks to a backlog of orders still being cleared. But it won’t be long before shipments drop back on cooling foreign demand. Meanwhile, imports continued to trend down, pointing to further domestic weakness.

8 August 2022

China Economics Weekly

Taiwan tensions add impetus to decoupling

If China’s military drills off the coast of Taiwan end, as scheduled, on Sunday and there is no further retaliation, this week’s flare-up in tension won’t have a direct economic impact. But it will have added urgency to efforts by China to make its economy less vulnerable to the sanctions that could follow a full-blown cross-Strait crisis. And it should have added impetus to efforts by multinationals to prepare for that eventuality too. We are re-sending this publication due to an error with the previous email. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.

5 August 2022

China Data Response

Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary)

Hong Kong’s GDP ticked up last quarter as the easing of virus restrictions boosted consumption. But the recovery was muted, held back by a drop in exports. We think growth will remain weak given rising interest rates, cooling global demand and the absence of mainland visitors. EM Drop-In (4th August, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our monthly online session on the big issues in emerging markets. In this 20-minute briefing, the team will be answering your questions about debt risks amid global tightening, the latest on the inflation outlook and much more. Register now.

1 August 2022

More from Mark Williams

China Economics Update

Property crunch will be followed by lasting decline

The root of Evergrande’s troubles – and those of other highly-leveraged developers – is that residential property demand in China is entering an era of sustained decline. Relaxation of regulatory controls on the sector wouldn’t change this fundamental constraint. Construction, a key engine of China’s growth and commodity demand, will slow substantially over the next few years, whether or not the economy escapes the current crunch unscathed.

15 September 2021

China Economics Weekly

Regulatory crackdown or ideological campaign?

What looked like a tech crackdown, broadened to a crackdown on large private firms, then to a wider regulatory push. This week it started to resemble a society-wide ideological campaign aimed at fortifying the nation’s people and economy. K-Pop fandoms are out. Xi Jinping Thought is in. Meanwhile, there’s growing talk that property tax plans are being revived.

3 September 2021

China Economics Weekly

Delta wave may have peaked but it won’t be the last

Aggressive containment measures, mass testing and quarantine appear already to be bringing China’s Delta outbreak under control. The economic cost should be fleeting – but it will be felt beyond China’s shores due to the closure of another major port terminal. And it won’t be the last bout of disruption. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank is likely to deliver a policy signal early next week in the form of an MLF operation.

13 August 2021
↑ Back to top