My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Unemployment rates to rise

The deterioration in the New Zealand and Australian economies is starting to flow through to a softening in the labour market. Admittedly, employment growth in Australia has risen to the highest rate in ten months. But the rate of jobs growth isn’t strong enough to keep up with growth in the labour force, so the unemployment rate is now the highest it has been in eight months. And with business surveys, job ads and economic activity all pointing to softer employment growth we suspect the unemployment rate will rise further this year. In New Zealand we suspect the slowdown in employment growth has further to run,which should flow through to an increase in the unemployment rate before long.
Continue reading

More from Australia & New Zealand

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

What does a Labor government mean for Australia?

A Labor government will probably keep fiscal policy looser than the previous Coalition government, putting more pressure on the RBA to hike interest rates. But while a Labor government will make greater efforts to decarbonise the economy, the bulk of mining output is exported so this won’t have a big impact on the mining industry. And we doubt Labor will be able to end the trade war with China.

23 May 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

New Zealand - Budget boost will exacerbate inflationary pressures

While the government’s Budget was focused on equipping households to withstand surging living costs, by adding to demand we think it will cause inflation to be higher over the next year. That’s all the more reason for the RBNZ to continue hiking rates aggressively throughout this year.

20 May 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Wage growth still set to approach 3% by year-end

While wage growth is set to reach 3% by the end of the year, this week’s labour market data didn’t contain any upside surprises that would convince the Reserve Bank of Australia to accelerate its hiking cycle at the upcoming meeting in June. Meanwhile, the opposition Labor party looks on track to win the federal election on Saturday. While Labor has only pledged slightly looser fiscal policy that would easily be offset by likely upward revisions to tax revenue, the party’s historical track record suggests that the budget deficit would shrink less rapidly than under the Coalition government over the coming years.

20 May 2022

More from Australia & New Zealand Economics Team

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Retail Sales (May)

The weakness in retail sales so far in Q2 suggests consumption growth remained sluggish in the second quarter. Sluggish consumption is one reason why we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.8% in 2018 to just 1.5% this year.

4 July 2019
↑ Back to top