Europe Economics Update EC survey points to stagnation and risks to inflation January’s EC survey points to continued weak GDP growth at best. While it also suggests that there are some upside risks to inflation in the near term, firms’ employment expectations and labour... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB has much further to go It’s clear that after cutting its deposit rate from 3% to 2.75% today, the ECB expects to reduce rates further in the coming months. We think that weak growth and inflation will mean that the Bank has... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hawkishly cuts by 25bp The South African Reserve Bank decision to cut its repo rate by 25bp, to 7.50%, was widely expected but Governor Kganyago was more hawkish than anticipated, citing concern about US tariff threats and... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (January 2024) The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 3% to 2.75% today came as no surprise and the accompanying statement implies that more cuts are coming, as is widely anticipated. We think the Bank will... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some... 30th January 2025 · 0 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Global Inflation Watch: Tariff shock to drive US-Europe inflation divergence Inflation has proved somewhat stickier than we had anticipated, but the outlook of lacklustre growth, softening labour markets, normalising supply conditions and falling energy costs is consistent... 29th January 2025 · 18 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: New governor, new direction for monetary policy The announcement of large liquidity injections into the banking sector demonstrates how the priorities of the RBI – led by new Governor Sanjay Malhotra – have shifted from containing inflation to... 29th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2024) 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus US Focus: The inflationary impact of tariffs for all President Trump’s various tariff threats would, if implemented in full, trigger a rebound in consumer price inflation later this year to between 3% and 4%, which would make it much harder for the Fed... 28th January 2025 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (January 2025) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing... 28th January 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent jitters across the region, with... 27th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to price pressures intensifying At face value, the latest batch of flash PMIs suggest that economic activity remained weak in Europe at the start of the year and lost some momentum in the US. Meanwhile, price pressures seem to be... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: New year, same dilemma for the BoE The data released this week showing a mix of weaker economic activity but rising price pressures will do little to ease the Bank of England's policy dilemma. We suspect that the continued bad news on... 24th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update The end is in sight for the Riksbank We think that next week the Riksbank will cut its policy rate for the final time this cycle, reducing it from 2.5% to 2.25%. After that, we do not see a need for policymakers to loosen policy any... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2025) Brazil’s headline inflation rate eased to 4.5% y/y in the first half of January, but signs that underlying price pressures continued to build mean that Copom will press ahead with another 100bp hike... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2025) Despite the small rise in the composite activity PMI from 50.4 in December last year to 50.9 in January, at face value it is still consistent with GDP stagnating at the start of Q1 after the economy... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
