Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s bark will be worse than its bite With the RBA keeping up its hawkish rhetoric, financial markets continue to see another rate hike this cycle as more likely than not. We remain sceptical. Data released this week show that labour... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy shrugging off higher energy costs Japan’s economy didn’t expand as strongly as most had anticipated in Q2, but with crude oil imports normalising, downside risks to economic activity are diminishing. Indeed, amidst mounting signs of... 21st August 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMI (Aug. 26) The strength in the August PMI adds to the case for the BoJ to hike interest rates as soon as next month. 21st August 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (July 2026) With underlying price pressures intensifying, we’re growing more confident in our view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again at its meeting next month . 21st August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Despite some softness in recent months, we expect a continuation of the AI capex boom and a broadening of investment to drive above-consensus GDP growth, which should rise to 2.6% next year. That... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) While the economy gained momentum in the second quarter, we expect GDP growth to slow again in the second half of the year amid ongoing uncertainty around CUSMA negotiations. The combination of soft... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2026) Recently released data support our view that emerging markets will – the Gulf economies aside – ride out the energy shock pretty well. At the same time, inflation pressures look contained and are... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy has weathered the energy shock well as Japan has been able to secure sufficient crude... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: from regional outperformer to laggard The poor performance of Chile’s economy in Q2 has prompted us to revise down our already below-consensus growth forecast to just 0.5% this year. And while we expect a modest pick-up in growth over... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone headline inflation will soon rise to 3.5% The indirect effects of higher energy prices on core inflation in the euro-zone have been close to non-existent so far, but they are likely to build in the second half of the year. If energy prices... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul. 26) The large fall in South African inflation in July, to 4.3% y/y, will likely prove a blip and the headline rate is likely to rise into early 2027. That should keep the SARB on the sidelines in the near... 19th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: food deflation benefits won’t last Falls in food prices in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this year have helped to keep headline inflation rates in check during the energy shock, but this will reverse before long. Global agricultural... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2026) CPI inflation rose from 2.6% in June to 2.9% in July (consensus forecast 2.9%, BoE & CE 2.8%) and the lagged effect from high energy prices will probably lift it to around 3.5% later this year. But as... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to think about the bond market sell-off The recent bond market sell-off appears to reflect investors demanding greater compensation for fiscal, geopolitical and policy uncertainty. We expect this shift to prove relatively persistent. The... 18th August 2026 · 15 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) The latest activity data suggest that India’s economy is slowing, but we think GDP growth should average 6.5% in 2026-27 – an enviable rate by global standards. Headline inflation nudged up to a 19... 18th August 2026 · 1 min read
