Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s security, Venezuela spillovers, CPI data The US and Europe appeared to move closer to an agreement on providing security guarantees to post-war Ukraine this week, but Russia is unlikely to be on board with the terms of the proposed... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec. 2025) Headline CPI inflation edged up to its highest level since China’s reopening from zero-COVID, but this was due to a weather-related pickup in food prices rather than success of the “anti-involution”... 9th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Case for February rate hike remains intact Following the release of weaker than expected November inflation figures, the financial markets now only see a small chance of a rate hike at the RBA's next meeting in February. However, if the Q4 CPI... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi borrowing plan, Bahrain’s austerity steps, KSA opens up Saudi Arabia kicked off 2026 with its first debt issuance of the year. Like last year, we think borrowing will exceed the authorities' plans as lower oil prices lead to a wider budget deficit and... 8th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec. 2025) The small fall in Mexican inflation to 3.7% y/y in December leaves the door open to a February cut but the central bank’s cautious tone, alongside still elevated core price pressures, means that we... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec. 2025) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional GDP growth held steady at around 2.5% y/y in December, and we think that growth will... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Soft overseas demand, the past rises in interest rates and higher taxes mean that GDP will grow by only 1.0% in 2026. The weakening in the labour market last year should continue to bear down on wage... 8th January 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (December) Swiss inflation edged up in December but remained close to zero and we think it will remain around that level this year. While the SNB left its policy rate at zero in December, we think policymakers... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Dec 2025) The continued fall in the ISM Services prices paid index is consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation remaining elevated over the next few months, but heading back down in the right direction... 7th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Four ways the UK consensus may be wrong in 2026 We think investors will be surprised by how far inflation, interest rates and gilt yields fall this year. That said, these forecasts could be knocked off course should fiscal policy not be tightened... 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (January 2026) The latest data suggest that the global economy lost some momentum in Q4. Industrial activity appears to be softening, while global trade – which has held up well despite US tariffs – fell in October... 7th January 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (December 2025) December’s small fall in headline inflation to 2.0%, and the likelihood that it will drop further in January, won’t alter ECB policymakers’ thinking. But if we’re right that headline and core... 7th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Nov. 25) While trimmed mean inflation slowed in February, it’s probably still too strong for the RBA’s liking and we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will tighten policy as soon as next month. 7th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone national inflation data (December) National inflation data released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation fell below 2% in December and that the core rate edged down. ECB policymakers will take that as confirmation that... 6th January 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi set to appreciate further in 2026 The renminbi has made headway recently, both against the US dollar and in trade-weighted terms. With inflation set to remain much lower in China than elsewhere, further nominal appreciation looks... 2nd January 2026 · 6 mins read
