US Rapid Response US Retail Sales & PPI (Feb.) The 0.6% m/m rebound in retail sales in February appears to reflect the unwinding of the drag on sales from the winter storms in early January, but the details suggest that the strength of consumers... 14th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.) The increase in Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate to 1.8% y/y in February is the highest reading since August and it could creep to above 2.0% y/y in the coming quarters. The bigger picture... 14th March 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will... 13th March 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) The rise in Russian inflation to 7.7% y/y in February highlights that price pressures in the economy remain strong and we think inflation is likely to increase further in the coming months. We doubt... 13th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Better inflation data needed for June rate cut Data dependence will remain the order of the day at next week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed officials likely to leave their interest rate projections broadly unchanged and signal that they are still... 13th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate some improvement in industry at the start of this year. But this... 13th March 2024 · 0 mins read
India Economic Outlook World-beating growth set to continue India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and we expect further strong growth over the coming years. That would put India on course to become the world’s third... 13th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Investors are right not to fret too much about inflation Stronger-than-expected US core CPI data did not trigger as big a reassessment in rate expectations as they did last month in financial markets, and we still forecast the Fed to start easing policy... 12th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect... 12th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The timeliest data support our long-held view that the euro-zone economy will remain close to recession in the first half of the year. Beyond that, we think growth will be much lower than the... 12th March 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The second consecutive 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI in February leaves Fed officials some way from attaining the “greater confidence” needed to begin cutting interest rates. The annual rate of core... 12th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (February 2024) The Brazilian inflation data for February, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 4.5%, provided further evidence that underlying inflation pressures remain strong. This supports our view... 12th March 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) Headline consumer price inflation held steady at 5.1% y/y in February and looking ahead, we think it will take a few more months before it reaches the RBI’s 4% long-term target. That suggests to us... 12th March 2024 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA on course for rate cuts in August We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: The BOJ March meeting and the end of negative rates 1710835200 Economists from our Japan and Markets teams held an online briefing shortly after the March decision to brief clients on the meeting outcome, talk through any market implicati