US import tariffs have largely focused on China. For some EMs (such as India and South East Asia), this creates near-term opportunities to take US market share from China. But there will be offsetting effects if confidence has been hit. And EM commodity producers have to face lower prices.
Capital outflows from EMs surged in the recent bout of market volatility. But most countries were well placed to face this with EM currencies broadly strengthening across 2025.
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