India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy. We’re expecting a further 50bp of cuts to the repo rate (to 5.50%) in this cycle, a more dovish view than that of the consensus.
India is well placed to immediately gain market share in response to penal US tariffs on Chinese imports, and it could benefit over the medium term too.
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