Jump in UK minimum wage keeps Bank of England on alert “The fear is that the rise this year will contribute to stickier wage growth and inflation,” said Ashley Webb, UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics, noting that last year’s pay boost had... 20th March 2024 · Financial Times
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.6% y/y, in February means that the SARB is likely to delay the start of its easing cycle until after May’s election. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The second bigger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in as many months, from 4.0% in January to 3.4% in February probably won’t make the Bank of England sound any more dovish when it leaves interest... 20th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The surprise fall in headline inflation to 2.8%, from 2.9%, is further reason to expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates soon, although we still think it will wait until June rather than... 19th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – On course for a soft landing 1712844000 The global economic outlook is subject to various uncertainties which have left forecasters split over the possibilities of a hard landing, soft landing or e
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s debt swap, CLP, rate cuts The Argentine government’s successful local currency debt swap this week has reduced roll-over risks and, together with the softer-than-expected February inflation figure, appears to be giving... 15th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tightening in Turkey, CNB holds onto its hawkishness Pressures on Turkish policymakers are building ahead of the local elections on 31st March as capital inflows have slowed and FX reserves are falling again. We doubt the central bank will hike interest... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to stress caution amid inflation uncertainty We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates in June, although we don’t expect officials to provide a strong steer either for or against at next week’s FOMC meeting. The updated Summary of Economic... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Eurobond, SA banks and SDR increase The Nigerian naira’s latest devaluation has taken it closer to fair value and, with investor sentiment towards Nigeria improving, the government is lining up a fresh Eurobond sale. That may help to... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB rate cuts will do little to boost growth The euro-zone will remain close to recession until the second half of this year and the subsequent recovery is likely to be weak. Household real incomes will pick up only slowly and consumers will be... 15th March 2024 · 21 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan: strong growth, but falling inflation Despite the booming economy, inflation in Taiwan has been falling back in recent months. Accordingly, we expect the central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB doesn’t need to wait for the Fed The ECB’s new operational framework, announced this week, doesn’t change the near-term outlook for monetary policy: we still expect the Bank to start cutting interest rates in June. And even though... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated to a higher-than-expected 31.7% y/y in February and the naira’s latest sharp falls mean it will continue to march towards 35% y/y over the coming months. For... 15th March 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly #3 in 2026 The key takeaway from our Q2 Outlook is that, while growth is likely to slow a touch, India will remain a global outperformer over the coming years. That will set the stage for India to overtake Japan... 15th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The good and bad of Egypt’s policy shift, Aramco transfer Last week’s policy moves in Egypt have raised concerns about a fresh surge in inflation, particularly after the jump recorded in the February CPI data. But while inflation may increase again in March... 14th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank rate cuts inching closer Inflation in Norway has fallen more quickly than Norges Bank expected, so at next week’s meeting it is likely to signal that it will cut interest rates sooner than it previously expected, perhaps in... 14th March 2024 · 2 mins read