Europe Economics Update Euro-zone food inflation to accelerate in 2027 In today’s press conference, Christine Lagarde expressed surprise at the decline in food inflation this year. This decline largely reflects past moves in agricultural commodity prices. But recent... 10th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will hike again, but will be cutting next year There was no surprise at today’s rate hike by the ECB, but the Bank’s forecast revisions and President Lagarde’s remarks in the press conference suggest that policymakers are minded to raise rates... 10th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Aug 2026) The key components of the PPI that feed into the core PCE deflator were fairly strong in August, raising the chance of the Fed hiking interest rates next week. Admittedly, that still depends on the... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s growth to surprise on the upside Ghana’s economy slowed in Q2 on the back of weakness in the cocoa sector and we expect the effects of the energy shock to dampen growth over the rest of the year. But looser policy should help to... 10th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2026) The surprise fall in Egypt’s headline inflation rate in August, to 14.5% y/y, means the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could still cut rates in Q4 (as we currently expect) but the latest pick up in... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (August 2026) The rebound in Mexican inflation (to 3.3% y/y) has further to run in the coming months and we think the headline rate will end this year above Banxico’s projections this year. Combined with the Fed... 9th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Soft EM food inflation is on borrowed time A severe El Niño and the lagged effects of the energy shock are likely to push EM food inflation up from current lows. Food is unlikely to be as important as core or energy prices in determining the... 9th September 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug. 2026) Inflation picked up again in August, largely reflecting renewed upward pressure from global oil prices. But the increase was concentrated in some energy-related sectors, while underlying domestic... 9th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Why Banxico’s next move will be a hike The recent patch of soft inflation in Mexico is unlikely to be sustained and the headline rate will follow a higher path than the central bank (Banxico) anticipates. With Banxico likely to revise up... 8th September 2026 · 15 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) The euro-zone economy is growing at a steady pace. While Spain is still the clear outperformer among the larger countries, Germany has finally returned to growth, but France has stalled. Business... 7th September 2026 · 0 mins read
US Economics Weekly Is the Fed destined to be behind the curve? The economic indicators this week suggest that the economy and labour market are humming along while firms are increasingly concerned about inflation risks. Nonetheless, the communications from Fed... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets turn increasingly hawkish in Poland The strength of the GDP and inflation figures out of Poland this week, alongside rising energy prices, have led investors to price in 75bp of interest rate hikes over the next year. While our base... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly The art of the oil deal, BCCh’s growth worries The US-Venezuela oil deal has made a splash this week, but we it seems unlikely that it will result in a major pick-up in Venezuelan oil production in the near-term. Elsewhere, the sharp drop in the... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Global developments dampen PM’s policy ambitions The latest rises in gilt yields and UK market interest rate expectations have reduced Chancellor Healey’s headroom against his main fiscal rule from £23.6bn in March to around £15.0bn. And higher... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will hike rates to 4.60% this month With the economy still growing around trend and trimmed mean inflation showing no signs of slowing, the upside risks to inflation that the RBA has been worried are starting to crystallise. We now... 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s tolerance for above-target inflation close to the limit While the Fed’s inflation misses over the past two years are primarily due to unanticipated shocks, the FOMC has arguably also become more accepting of above-target inflation as it seeks to balance... 3rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
