India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (May 2025) India’s headline consumer price inflation fell to a 75-month low of 2.8% y/y in May. Inflation may now have bottomed out, but we think it will rise only very gradually back towards the Reserve Bank’s... 12th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank in no rush to start cutting We expect Norges Bank to wait a bit longer before it finally starts to cut interest rates. And as the economy is growing at a decent pace and the labour market is still tight, the Bank is likely to... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (June 2025) The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1%... 11th June 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (May 2025) The muted 0.1% m/m rise in the core CPI in May is not quite as good as it looks, with our preliminary estimate pointing to a 0.20% rise in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator ahead of the PPI data... 11th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Euro-zone GDP rose strongly in Q1 but the economy will struggle in the rest of this year as tariff front-running ends and higher US tariffs start to weigh more heavily on activity. Increased defence... 10th June 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (May 2025) The slightly larger-than-expected fall in Brazil’s headline inflation, to 5.3% y/y, was driven by weaker food inflation. Underlying price pressures continued to strengthen and, against that backdrop... 10th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BOJ Watch: Bank of Japan will resume tightening in October We suspect that the Bank of Japan will stick to its downbeat outlook for economic activity at its upcoming meeting. However, we doubt that trade tensions will weigh on inflation as much as... 10th June 2025 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Foreign visitor slump could lend the Fed a hand A slump in the number of foreign visitors to the US could prove to be a helpful source of deflationary pressure this year, while having a limited impact on GDP growth. 9th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May 2025) Mexico’s headline inflation rate jumped to 4.4% y/y in May but this was mainly driven by stronger non-core prices and so is unlikely to trouble officials at the central bank. Indeed, with the economy... 9th June 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: Economic outperformance in the face of tariff threat India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, making it a global outperformer. The recent sharp drop in inflation has enabled the Reserve... 9th June 2025 · 17 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May 2025) Headline inflation remained in negative territory last month but core inflation continued to recover and is now at its highest in almost a year. This improvement looks fragile, however, and we still... 9th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Floods in Nigeria, SA Budget and inflation target Flooding in Nigeria in recent weeks has claimed scores of lives and, while the economic hit should be limited, it could result in interest rates being kept higher for longer. More fundamentally, the... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Tariff front-running fades, disinflation continues While policymakers at the ECB indicated this week that they may be at the end of their easing cycle, we think they will probably make one more rate cut this year, in September. Meanwhile, we agree... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update How fast will euro-zone wage growth fall? Wage growth looks set to slow from 4.5% last year to around 3% by the end of 2025, leaving it within touching distance of the 2.5% rate we think is consistent with the ECB’s inflation target. 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Soft GDP data put July cut in play for RBA With Australia's economic recovery faltering, there is a growing risk that the RBA will cut rates at its next meeting in July, rather than in August as we currently forecast. However, even if the Bank... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ends easing cycle with a bang The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by a larger-than-expected 50bps (to 5.50%) while also changing its policy stance from “accommodative” to “neutral” today are clear... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
