US Economic Outlook Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threat Our working assumption is that the 90-day pause on the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs will be made permanent, with tariffs remaining at 10% for most countries apart from China. Providing... 16th April 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone disinflation remains on track March’s decline in services inflation was entirely due to transport, which in turn reflected past moves in oil prices and Easter timing effects. But the fundamentals still point to continued declines... 16th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will likely see limited direct impact from the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. But the bigger growth worry should come from the US trade turmoil... 16th April 2025 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The dip in CPI inflation from 2.8% in February to 2.6% in March won’t be sustained for long, with inflation set to rise to around 3.5% in the coming months. But we think a weak economy will quash... 16th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A primer on Australia’s general election The upcoming federal election on 3rd May appears likely to result in a hung parliament. Although the ruling Labor party’s recent uptick in the polls suggest that it is in pole position to form a... 16th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin America generally got off lightly on ‘liberation day’, but the indirect... 15th April 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere? Punitive tariffs have the potential to cause a substantial fall in US imports from China – a 60% tariff, for example, could cut imports from China by about a third over the next two years, with... 15th April 2025 · 20 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The downward surprise to CPI inflation in March, along with the first target-consistent gains in CPI-trim and CPI-median in eight months, at the margin raise the odds of a rate cut by the Bank of... 15th April 2025 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in Indian consumer price inflation in March, which pushes it further below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) 4% target, reinforces our view that the central bank will... 15th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate picked up to 2.3% y/y in March, the fastest pace since the middle of 2023. And inflation strengthened across most categories of the CPI basket, suggesting that... 15th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 25) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan's economy will be hit less hard than many other large economies by the recent escalation of... 15th April 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weaker business confidence would force RBA’s hand While the recent drop in crude oil prices would lower inflation a bit, that drag will be more than offset by a boost from the weaker Australian dollar. The upshot is that barring a sharp fall in... 14th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Safe haven flows to force SNB into action With the Swiss currency having experienced its largest two-week appreciation since the “Frankenshock” in 2015, the SNB may already have started selling francs in the FX market. We have a 25bp cut... 11th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trade war rollercoaster generating mixed pressures The 90-day pause on US “reciprocal tariffs” has reduced the scale of near-term downside risks to economic growth across Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Russia has managed to avoid being hit... 11th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Will domestic spending offset weak external demand? It’s been two months since Canadians began boycotting US goods and services in the wake of the aggression from President Trump over tariffs and his apparent desire to make Canada the 51st state. The... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
