Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

Emerging Markets Outlook: Tariff storm one of many headwinds

EM GDP growth picked up towards the end of last year, but the outlook is increasingly challenging – and not just because of US import tariffs. Weaker capital inflows, lower commodity prices and tight...

26th March 2025 · 27 mins read

China Economic Outlook

China Outlook: Export slowdown looms as domestic drags persist

Increased US tariffs will exacerbate a broader slowdown in exports. China’s economy will also face continued drags from the property downturn and wider deflationary dynamics. A sizeable fiscal...

26th March 2025 · 16 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2025)

The outlook for EM GDP growth appears increasingly challenging and our growth forecasts for this year generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue although, outside Asia, high...

26th March 2025 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025)

The dip in CPI inflation from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February is a bit of a red herring as inflation will probably be back above 3.0% in April and around 3.5% by September. That and the risk of...

26th March 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Feb. 25)

26th March 2025 · 2 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Asia Outlook: Rate cuts and trade uncertainty

We expect economic growth across the region to remain subdued, with most economies set to record below-trend and below-consensus growth this year. While lower interest rates will provide some support...

25th March 2025 · 28 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs consistent with subdued growth outlook in DMs

The latest flash PMIs suggest that while economic activity may have picked up a bit in advanced economies towards the end of Q1, the outlook remains fairly bleak. And while inflation seems to finally...

24th March 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar. 2025)

The further easing of core services inflation in Mexico in the first half of March combined with recent weak activity data paves the way for Banxico to deliver another 50bp cut at its meeting on...

24th March 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Mar. 2025)

With the downside risks on activity shrinking and high price pressures being sustained, the Bank of England is probably becoming increasingly likely to pause interest rate cuts.

24th March 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

ANZ Outlook: RBA will cut less aggressively than RBNZ

Both Antipodean economies seem to have turned a corner at the end of last year, and we expect the recoveries to gather momentum in the coming quarters. Given the tight labour market and elevated...

25th March 2025 · 20 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: Prices, population and politics

The stronger-than-expected rebound in inflation in February and sharp rise in firms’ selling price expectations this month complicates things for the Bank of Canada in its attempts to combat inflation...

21st March 2025 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2025)

The latest data suggest that the world economy has made a relatively weak start to 2025. Activity in China has been soft so far this year amid a pullback in fiscal spending, while a surge in US...

21st March 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Economic Outlook

Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende!

The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany...

21st March 2025 · 28 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Net migration to slow further, supporting disinflation

We learned this week that Australia's population growth continued to slow in Q3 2024, as net migration flows eased significantly. We believe that concerns about a potential resurgence in international...

21st March 2025 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: Tariff front-running will be followed by export slump

The recent strength in export volumes seems to reflect efforts to front-run US tariffs. While that is providing a boost to activity now, it will only magnify the hit to exports once those tariffs are...

21st March 2025 · 4 mins read