RBI Watch RBI Watch: Why we think the easing cycle is over The further sharp drop in headline inflation in June has raised the prospect of another interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) upcoming MPC meeting on Wednesday 6th August. But given... 30th July 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Politburo prioritises supply-side over demand-side The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a less dovish tone compared with the previous meeting on economic affairs back in April and stops short of committing to any additional monetary or... 30th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (July) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP growth maintained a moderate pace, at 2.0-2.5% y/y, at the start of Q3. The prices components of the... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2025) With underlying inflation inching closer towards the mid-point of the RBA’s 2-3% target, the Board should have no qualms about handing down a 25bp cut next month. And with activity still weak and the... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The EU-US trade agreement, which will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods exports to the... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2025) The latest data suggest that global industry has been resilient to tariffs so far this year. But global trade softened in May and the latest surveys point to further weakness to come. Consumer... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. President Trump’s tariff threats this month put Latin America in the firing line... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Financial lifeline for Pemex, busy week for central banks In a busy week for central banks, we expect policymakers in Chile and Colombia to resume their easing cycle and Copom to leave its policy rate unchanged. But the overarching picture in Latin America... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
US Economics Focus Tariff impact on inflation slowly building Up to now there has been only limited passthrough from tariffs into final consumer prices, but we still expect the impact to gradually mount in the second half of this year. Many retailers appear to... 25th July 2025 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA interest rate cuts, Nigeria tax reform The weak inflation reading for June out of South Africa this week strengthens the case for the SARB to cut interest rates on Thursday. And further out we think that rates will be lowered by more than... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2025) The stable Brazilian mid-month inflation reading for July (of 5.3% y/y), signs that underlying core inflation is easing, and the resilience of the real all but confirm that Copom won’t hike rates... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: A bad deal is better than no deal Reports this week suggest that the EU and US are on the brink of agreeing a trade deal with a 15% baseline tariff on US imports from the bloc. It’s hard to spin it as a good deal, but it would at... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s gradualism poses upside risks to rates The minutes of the RBA's July meeting showed that the Board remains reluctant to declare victory in the war on inflation – a sentiment reiterated by Governor Bullock in a speech this week. We suspect... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul 2025) The drop in Mexican inflation to 3.5% y/y in the first half of July means that Banxico is all but certain to deliver the clearly-signalled 25bp cut next month. It also lends support to our below... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2025) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and... 24th July 2025 · 1 min read
