Global Inflation Watch

Limited second-round risks reduce need for rate hikes

Fears that the Iran conflict will trigger a sustained resurgence in inflation and a renewed global tightening cycle appear somewhat overdone. Admittedly, inflation in advanced economies looks set to...

27th May 2026 · 18 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (May 26)

Higher energy prices will boost Angola and Nigeria’s economies. With elections on the horizon, governments are likely to spend their windfall. Most others in the region are having to manage worse...

27th May 2026 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ set to hike rates in July

The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold today came down to the wire, and it signalled that it would need to unwind its accommodative stance sooner rather than later. Accordingly, we’re bringing...

27th May 2026 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (April 2026)

With price pressures somewhat contained for now, the RBA is all but certain to pause its tightening cycle in June. However, if we’re right that the rise in underlying inflation has further to run, the...

27th May 2026 · 2 mins read

India Economics Update

India trip notes – heatwave, rupee, RBI and AI

A week spent visiting clients and contacts in Delhi and Mumbai has underscored the extent to which the Middle East conflict is reverberating through the economy. Several of our discussions were...

26th May 2026 · 5 mins read

Event

Europe Drop-In: Energy prices, inflation and the ECB

9th June 2026, 3:00PM BST

A rate hike is priced in for its June meeting, but how will the ECB balance the growth-inflation trade-off into the second half of 2026?

Japan Economics Update

Could the BoJ lift rates into restrictive territory?

The inflationary consequences of the Iran War have made us more confident in our view that the BoJ’s policy rate will climb to a neutral level of around 2% before long. However, the hurdles for the...

26th May 2026 · 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Fed alert to rising price pressures

The hawkish tone of the Fed’s late-April minutes shows it would be ready to demonstrate its inflation-fighting credentials if it felt compelled to do so. We judge this would require a broadening in...

22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Soft demand helping to keep inflation in check

Data released this week suggest the hit to consumer demand from higher energy prices is helping to offset some of the direct inflationary impact on firms’ costs. This reduces the risk of second-round...

22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2026)

The conflict in the Middle East will lead to sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf economies and weigh on activity in energy importers, especially in Asia. Inflation has started to pick up and central banks...

22nd May 2026 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Weekly

Economic growth may stall in Q2

The downbeat set of business surveys for May which were published this week have prompted us to shave our forecast for quarterly GDP growth to zero in Q2. Further ahead, an outright recession is...

22nd May 2026 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa: from one energy crisis to the next

South Africa this week marked a full year without power outages, but the effects of the energy shock from the Iran war are now starting to kick in. We think the rise in inflation in April was probably...

22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Bank of Japan will lift rates to 2% by end-2027

We learned this week that the Japanese economy was in solid shape on the eve of the Iran war. Moreover, the May PMIs suggest that the Bank of Japan’s fears of a steep downturn are unlikely to...

22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (May 2026)

India’s economy will grow at its slowest rate since 2020 this year as a result of the energy shock. We think headline inflation will rise above the upper bound of the RBI’s 2-6% target range over the...

22nd May 2026 · 0 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA's work not done yet

The jump in Australia's unemployment rate and the recent plunge in auction clearance rates suggest that the upside risks to our interest rate forecasts have diminished. Nonetheless, with underlying...

22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read