UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (May 2025) Although our base case remains that the hit to UK GDP growth from US tariffs will be relatively small, the downside risks to our below consensus forecast for GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 have increased... 7th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (April) Sweden’s CPIF inflation was unchanged in April which will give the Riksbank little cause for concern going into its policy decision tomorrow. We expect it to keep the policy rate at 2.25%. 7th May 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: BanRep’s dovish shift, Copom nearing an end The unanimous decision by Colombia's central bank to lower its policy rate by 25bp, to 9.25%, earlier this week suggests that the Board is more dovish than we’d thought. That will raise fears, similar... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (April 2025) April’s rise in services inflation is unlikely to worry the ECB too much as it was probably driven mainly by Easter timing effects. We think services inflation will start falling again in the coming... 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Inflation risks remain two-sided, Labor leads in polls With underlying inflation having returned to its 2-3% target range in Q1, the RBA is all but certain to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting later this month. However, given that timely data point to... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia April Manufacturing PMIs The April PMIs for Asia fell sharply, providing the first sign that Trump tariffs are weighing on sentiment in the region. With concerns about growth mounting and inflation worries continuing to ease... 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Bank of Japan too downbeat about inflation outlook The Bank of Japan slashed its GDP growth forecasts this week, arguing that global trade tensions are weighing on sentiment of households and firms. While consumer confidence has indeed plunged... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update China’s export surge and what it means for Africa The prospect of a flood of low-cost Chinese exports to African shores may help those economies suffering from high inflation but it risks undermining the growth of domestic industry. Governments in... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates again before long The Bank of Japan revised down its growth forecasts and sounded more dovish when it left policy settings unchanged today. However, we believe that the Bank has become far too downbeat about the... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France & Italy Flash Inflation (April) National data published so far suggest that euro-zone inflation remained at 2.2% in April, and that core inflation probably rose from 2.4% to 2.6%. (Euro-zone data due on Friday 2 nd May). But with... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Healthy monsoon would boost India’s economy A robust monsoon this year – as predicted by experts – wouldn’t have as big an impact on India’s economy as it would have had a couple of decades ago. But it could boost employment and energy... 30th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (Apr.) The larger-than-expected fall in Polish inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in April, is probably enough to tip the balance at the central bank towards restarting the monetary easing cycle next week. We are now... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2025) 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump, the global economy and the next 100 days President Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought substantial shifts in US policy. The next 100 will start to reveal whether his presidency is causing a realignment of the global economy. There... 29th April 2025 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (April 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 29th April 2025 · 1 min read
